Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 8

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Haradski Stadium (Barysaw)


	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk		ML Vitebsk

	1	X	2
	8.3	4.9	1.29
	8	4.5	1.33
	12.3	4.5	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.53 ↑ (8.85)	4.63 ↑ (3.92)	1.31 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
9.7%

Draw
19.9%

ML Vitebsk
70.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.6%

23.9%

65.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.4%

23.4%

66.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Vitebsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ML Vitebsk than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - ML Vitebsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Soroko A. (G) 31. Zaleskiy A. 46. Vasilyev V. 41. Lutik D. 13. Oreshkevich I. 10. Sazonchik S. 11. Lovets Y. (C) 77. Sotnikov N. 33. Gorbachik V. 90. Antilevskiy D. 99. Tolkachev I.	1. Pavlyuchenko P. (G) 6. Gomanov K. 20. Volkov Z. 45. Moskalenchik I. 80. Kontsevoy A. 55. Gromyko V. 4. Abdullahi O. 27. Mesarovic A. 23. Balanovich S. (C) 79. Diabate B. 21. Glushkov N.
Substitutes
4. Akunets E. 8. Kaplenko N. 7. Mokin M. 23. Polyakov D. 1. Sanko I. (G) 26. Tkachenko V. 16. Vaschenko A. (G) 9. Vasin I. 18. Volskiy D. 95. Vorobyov I.	3. Baranok N. 99. Bulanov M. 25. Bykov N. 17. Galyata D. 7. Ivanov T. 14. Lisakovich R. 11. Nicholson S. 30. Shcherbachenya P. (G) 22. Skibskiy Y. 18. Zhuk V.
Coaches
Voronkov I.	Adiev M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Diabate B. ⚽, Kontsevoy A. (A),
20', Gromyko V. ↓, Lisakovich R. ↑,
25', 0 - 2, Glushkov N. ⚽, Balanovich S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sotnikov N. ↓, Tkachenko V. ↑,
46', Tolkachev I. ↓, Mokin M. ↑,
46', Sazonchik S. ↓, Volskiy D. ↑,
50', 0 - 3, Oreshkevich I. (Own goal),
60', Zaleskiy A. ↓, Polyakov D. ↑,
66', Tkachenko V. 🟨,
66', Diabate B. ↓, Nicholson S. ↑,
66', Kontsevoy A. ↓, Galyata D. ↑,
70', Gorbachik V. ↓, Vasin I. ↑,
72', Balanovich S. ↓, Skibskiy Y. ↑,
72', Glushkov N. ↓, Ivanov T. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

ML Vitebsk is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, ML Vitebsk is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 1.3:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:8. (average 0.5:4).

Outrights of Belarusian Vysshaya Liga for now

ML Vitebsk: 42.94%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	ML Vitebsk	21	12	8	1	42:17	25	44
12	Arsenal Dzerzhinsk	23	5	8	10	24:41	-17	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
08.05.26	Baranovichi - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Isloch Minsk	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Torpedo-BelAZ - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	3:3 ✺
20.04.26	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Belshina	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Slavia Mozyr - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 TTTWT
- ML Vitebsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
10.05.26	ML Vitebsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	5:1 ✺
03.05.26	Dinamo Minsk - ML Vitebsk	2:3 ✺
Belarusian Cup
29.04.26	Dinamo Minsk - ML Vitebsk	1:0 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
25.04.26	ML Vitebsk - Dinamo Brest	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	BATE Borisov - ML Vitebsk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
10.08.25	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - ML Vitebsk	0:4
29.03.25	ML Vitebsk - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	2:2
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
11.11.23	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - ML Vitebsk	1:4
09.07.23	ML Vitebsk - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	2:2

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