Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 8

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Sosa N. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Arsenal Sarandí		Club Almagro

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.8	3.1	Watch
	2.45	2.7	3.1
	2.55	2.7	3.1	Watch
	2.68	2.65	3.18	Watch
	2.45	2.7	3.2
	2.62	2.66	3.08
	2.55	2.7	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.21)	2.7 ↓ (2.8)	3.12 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
36.2%

Draw
34.2%

Club Almagro
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

33.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

34.2%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal Sarandí's form might have worsened.

Club Almagro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal Sarandí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Club Almagro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Vera M. 2. Roselli N. 6. Cocca M. 3. Cabrera I. 8. Purita E. 5. Vila J. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Serrano V. 7. Lucero M. 9. Klusener G.	1. Gonzalez E. (G) 4. Garcia M. 2. Vitale J. 6. Rios R. 3. Gancedo M. 8. Castro T. 5. Jerez Silva L. 10. Quiroga F. 7. Dornell T. 9. Cucchi P. 11. Gonzalez A.
Coaches
Viscovich G.	Sparapani L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Dornell T. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Lucero M. ↓, Frascone N. ↑,
52', Castro T. 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Dornell T. ⚽,
61', Cucchi P. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
61', Quiroga F. ↓, Diosquez N. ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Purita E. ⚽,
63', Cabrera I. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,
65', Serrano V. 🟨,
70', 2 - 2, Bordagaray F. ⚽,
71', Vera M. ↓, Sosa A. ↑,
73', Castro T. ↓, Luayza M. ↑,
73', Dornell T. ↓, Orlando J. ↑,
76', Klusener G. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
76', Fernandez E. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
80', Gonzalez A. ↓, Baldunciel L. ↑,
89', Luayza M. 🟨,
90', Frascone N. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 13).

Arsenal Sarandí is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Almagro is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Almagro could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
22.03.25	San Miguel - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Quilmes	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Racing de Córdoba - Arsenal Sarandí	3:0 ✺
28.02.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Colegiales - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLLTT
- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
22.03.25	Club Almagro - All Boys	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Alvarado - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Club Almagro - Deportivo Madryn	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Deportivo Maipú - Club Almagro	3:1 ✺
22.02.25	Club Almagro - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.03.19	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	0:0

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