Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 34

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play


	Arsenal Sarandí		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.1
	2.25	3.05	3.1
	2.71	3.19	3
	1.11	8.46	21.02	Watch
	2.27	3.05	3.21
	2.28	3.1	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.88)	3.85 ↑ (3.04)	5.7 ↑ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
51.6%

Draw
28.9%

Alvarado
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

30.7%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

30%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Arsenal Sarandí - Alvarado Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrera F. (G) 4. Purita E. (C) 2. Roselli N. 6. Cocca M. 3. Serrano V. 5. Colletta T. 8. Lucero M. 7. Gonzalez T. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Batista A. 9. Sayago D.	1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 4. Ardiles F. 2. Blasi B. (C) 6. Irazoque A. 3. Aleo A. 5. Mansilla M. 8. Bolivar A. 7. Ascacibar J. 10. Becker D. 11. Bolzicco T. 9. Susvielles J.
Substitutes
13. Amaya A. 15. Ayala A. 18. Bordagaray F. 20. Frascone N. 19. Klusener G. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 14. Mihovilcevich L. 17. Rius C. 16. Vila J.	19. Amilivia T. 16. Borgnino M. 17. Castellano A. 13. Fernandez T. 15. Martinez E. 18. Miori M. 14. Ortale M. 20. Ortiz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Purita E. ⚽,
6', 2 - 0, Gonzalez T. ⚽,
45+2', Mansilla M. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Bolzicco T. ↓, Miori M. ↑,
46', Becker D. ↓, Castellano A. ↑,
46', Purita E. ↓, Vila J. ↑,
46', Lucero M. ↓, Ayala A. ↑,
50', Bolivar A. 🟨,
55', Bolivar A. ↓, Ortale M. ↑,
55', Ardiles F. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
58', Sayago D. ↓, Klusener G. ↑,
65', Ascacibar J. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
67', Fernandez E. 🟨,
67', 3 - 0, Fernandez E. ⚽, Klusener G. (A),
71', Castellano A. 🟨,
77', Martinez E. 🟨,
79', Blasi B. 🟨,
79', Fernandez E. ↓, Mihovilcevich L. ↑,
79', Roselli N. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,
80', 4 - 0, Klusener G. (Pen),
86', 5 - 0, Mihovilcevich L. ⚽,
88', Aleo A. 🟥,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Arsenal Sarandí is Relegated to

Arsenal Sarandí is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alvarado has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arsenal Sarandí is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Arsenal Sarandí won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Arsenal Sarandí won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alvarado - the odds 4.76 are the expected chance of winning is 19.62%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.09.25	Deportivo Madryn - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Deportivo Maipú	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Arsenal Sarandí	3:0 ✺
08.09.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Tristán Suárez	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Arsenal Sarandí	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLLTW
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.09.25	Alvarado - All Boys	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Alvarado - Los Andes	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Deportivo Madryn - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
08.09.25	Alvarado - Deportivo Maipú	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Alvarado	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.06.25	Alvarado - Arsenal Sarandí	0:2
27.10.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Alvarado	1:0
09.06.24	Alvarado - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1

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