Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 31

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Deportivo Madryn		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.5	9	Watch
	1.6	3.2	6.5
	1.5	3.45	7.3
	1.6	3.35	6.84
	1.05	10.08	30.00	Watch
	1.53	3.38	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.67)	4.49 ↑ (3)	11.19 ↑ (6.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Madryn
68.8%

Draw
22.3%

Alvarado
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

30.7%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

29.8%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Madryn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Madryn's performance.

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alvarado might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Madryn than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Madryn that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Deportivo Madryn - Alvarado Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Deportivo Madryn will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Madryn (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bonnin Y. (C) 4. Sosa A. 2. Giacopuzzi F. 6. Gutierrez A. 3. Martinez D. 10. Solis N. 8. Perez B. 5. Recalde F. 7. Crego D. 11. Rivero G. 9. Silba L.	1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 4. Ardiles F. 2. Blasi B. (C) 6. Irazoque A. 3. Aleo A. 7. Amilivia T. 5. Mansilla M. 8. Ortale M. 11. Gorgerino C. 10. Miori M. 9. Susvielles J.
Substitutes
20. Ayala E. 16. Bustos A. 12. Hass J. (G) 19. Mana N. 13. Mansilla M. 18. Montagna E. 17. Nicolas T. J. 14. Postel S. 15. Yossen T.	15. Ascacibar J. 18. Bolivar A. 19. Bolzicco T. 13. Fernandez T. 12. Henricot F. (G) 20. Ortiz D. 17. Perez M. 16. Russo F. 14. Werro V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', Gorgerino C. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Perez B. (Pen),
38', Ortale M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gorgerino C. ↓, Bolivar A. ↑,
46', Ortale M. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
57', Perez B. ↓, Montagna E. ↑,
63', Ardiles F. ↓, Russo F. ↑,
70', Amilivia T. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
70', Aleo A. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,
77', Silba L. ↓, Mana N. ↑,
77', Solis N. ↓, Postel S. ↑,
81', Bolzicco T. 🟨,
88', Rivero G. ↓, Ayala E. ↑,
90', Blasi B. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Super final: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Madryn won 1.

Deportivo Madryn is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alvarado has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Deportivo Madryn is the obvious favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Madryn won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Madryn won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Madryn
Argentinian Primera Nacional
07.09.25	Deportivo Madryn - Los Andes	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Deportivo Maipú - Deportivo Madryn	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Deportivo Madryn - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tristán Suárez - Deportivo Madryn	2:2 ✺
10.08.25	Deportivo Madryn - San Martín de Tucumán	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWTW
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.09.25	Alvarado - Deportivo Maipú	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Alvarado	3:0 ✺
28.08.25	Quilmes - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Alvarado - Tristán Suárez	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.05.25	Alvarado - Deportivo Madryn	0:2
07.08.22	Deportivo Madryn - Alvarado	1:1
Argentinian Torneo Federal
02.06.19	Alvarado - Deportivo Madryn	4:2
26.05.19	Deportivo Madryn - Alvarado	0:0
29.11.18	Alvarado - Deportivo Madryn	3:0
10.10.18	Deportivo Madryn - Alvarado	1:3
24.11.17	Alvarado - Deportivo Madryn	1:1

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