Match Info

Date: 17 April 2022, Sunday


	Arsenal Tula		Rostov

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.05	2.55
	2.86	3.28	2.64
	2.91	3.38	2.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.8)	3.24 ↓ (3.32)	2.6 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Tula
33.7%

Draw
29.5%

Rostov
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.7%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

31.8%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Rostov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rostov than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Arsenal Tula - Rostov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 10).

Arsenal has the most likely position - 16 (35.68%), has project points - 27, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (74%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Rostov has the most likely position - 10 (23.39%), has project points - 36, has currently - 28, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 35, importance 37, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arsenal won 0.

Arsenal is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Rostov is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Rostov could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rostov will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Arsenal won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 13-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Tula
Russian Premier League
10.04.22	Spartak Moscow - Arsenal Tula	3:0 ✺
02.04.22	Arsenal Tula - Akhmat Grozny	0:0 ✺
19.03.22	Zenit - Arsenal Tula	3:0 ✺
12.03.22	Arsenal Tula - Dynamo Moscow	1:4 ✺
06.03.22	Krylya Sovetov - Arsenal Tula	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTLLT
- FC Rostov
Russian Premier League
10.04.22	Rostov - Lokomotiv Moscow	4:1 ✺
06.04.22	Rostov - Krylya Sovetov	1:0 ✺
02.04.22	Rostov - Nizhny Novgorod	1:2 ✺
20.03.22	Dynamo Moscow - Rostov	1:1 ✺
14.03.22	Rubin Kazan - Rostov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
23.10.21	Rostov - Arsenal Tula	4:0
25.04.21	Rostov - Arsenal Tula	1:0
27.09.20	Arsenal Tula - Rostov	2:3
27.06.20	Rostov - Arsenal Tula	2:1
28.07.19	Arsenal Tula - Rostov	2:3
10.03.19	Rostov - Arsenal Tula	0:0
24.08.18	Arsenal Tula - Rostov	0:1

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