Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 9

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca (Ascoli Piceno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport MIX


	Ascoli		Pontedera

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.29	4.65	9.8
	1.32	4.73	10.74
	1.32	4.87	9.00	Watch
	1.32	4.8	9.96	Watch
	1.25	4.3	15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.65)	4.67 ↑ (3.65)	10.9 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ascoli
71.5%

Draw
19.9%

Pontedera
8.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

25.1%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

23.2%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ascoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ascoli's performance.

Pontedera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pontedera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ascoli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pontedera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ascoli - Pontedera Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Pontedera (3.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Ascoli (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ascoli will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ascoli will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Ascoli (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Pontedera (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitale S. (G) 23. Alagna M. 30. Curado M. 3. Nicoletti M. 2. Pagliai G. 62. Milanese T. 4. Damiani S. 7. Silipo A. 25. Rizzo Pinna A. 15. D'Uffizi S. 35. Gori G.	22. Biagini V. (G) 5. Corradini F. 19. Pretato M. 3. Vona E. 24. Bassanini R. 8. Faggi F. 14. Manfredonia M. 21. Perretta G. 13. Scaccabarozzi J. 17. Vitali P. 11. Ianesi S.
Substitutes
24. Bando A. 46. Barosi D. (G) 41. Brzan R. (G) 9. Chakir M. A. 18. Corazza S. 80. Corradini G. 27. Cozzoli F. 19. Menna D. 6. Ndoj E. 11. Oviszach E. 29. Palazzino F. 33. Rizzo N.	29. Andolfi T. 33. Battimelli G. 32. Beghetto L. 27. Coviello A. 6. Gueye O. 4. Milazzo S. 25. Nabian H. 18. Paolieri L. 20. Pietrelli R. 12. Raffi A. (G) 30. Strada N. (G) 9. Tarantino J. 26. Tempre M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Rizzo Pinna A. ⚽,
35', Ianesi S. 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, D'Uffizi S. ⚽,
40', Vona E. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Ianesi S. ↓, Andolfi T. ↑,
53', 3 - 0, Milanese T. ⚽,
59', Scaccabarozzi J. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
65', 4 - 0, D'Uffizi S. ⚽,
66', Manfredonia M. 🟨,
67', Silipo A. ↓, Palazzino F. ↑,
68', D'Uffizi S. ↓, Oviszach E. ↑,
74', Vona E. ↓, Paolieri L. ↑,
74', Vitali P. ↓, Tarantino J. ↑,
74', Milanese T. ↓, Corradini G. ↑,
74', Rizzo Pinna A. ↓, Ndoj E. ↑,
77', Gori G. ↓, Corazza S. ↑,
81', Pretato M. 🟨,
82', Manfredonia M. ↓, Milazzo S. ↑,
84', 5 - 0, Corazza S. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 1.

Ascoli has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Pontedera has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pontedera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ascoli is the obvious favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ascoli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
04.10.25	Ascoli - Bra	4:1 ✺
27.09.25	Sassari Torres - Ascoli	0:1 ✺
23.09.25	Ascoli - Pineto	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Livorno - Ascoli	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Perugia - Ascoli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWW
- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
05.10.25	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Pontedera - Forlì	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Ternana - Pontedera	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Pontedera - Campobasso	0:4 ✺
13.09.25	Pontedera - Rimini	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
22.03.25	Pontedera - Ascoli	1:1
10.11.24	Ascoli - Pontedera	1:1
18.03.15	Pontedera - Ascoli	0:0
02.11.14	Ascoli - Pontedera	1:0
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
23.03.14	Pontedera - Ascoli	5:0
16.11.13	Ascoli - Pontedera	2:0

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