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Current Win Probability
Ashton United 37.4%
Draw 26%
Alfreton Town 36.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
43.9%
25.8%
30.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.8%
25.7%
30.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ashton United's form might have worsened.
Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alfreton Town's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ashton United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alfreton Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Ashton United - Alfreton Town Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 14th and 11th).
Recent results have been tough for Ashton (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Performances by Alfreton have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Alfreton may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Ashton has faced a series of away games on the road.
Recently, Alfreton has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ashton has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:4 (averaging 0:2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Ashton against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
Alfreton
15
6
2
7
21:17
4
20
17
Ashton Utd
14
3
5
6
17:18
-1
14
Outrights of English NPL Premier Division for now
Alfreton: 1.84%
Last Results with these Odds
Ashton United - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 43.9%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.