Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 20

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday


	Ashton United		Hednesford Town

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.2	2.25
	3	3.34	2.21
	3.33	3.65	1.99	Watch
	2.78	3.22	2.32
	3.2	3.33	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↓ (3.33)	3.35 ↓ (3.65)	2.17 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ashton United
30.3%

Draw
27.4%

Hednesford Town
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

25.4%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

24.2%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Hednesford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hednesford Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ashton United - Hednesford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 0 - 1, Rose A. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North).

Ashton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hednesford is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Hednesford has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ashton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
22.11.25	Guiseley - Ashton United	4:2 ✺
15.11.25	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	3:2 ✺
11.11.25	Leek Town - Ashton United	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Ilkeston - Ashton United	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Ashton United - Cleethorpes Town	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLWL
- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
22.11.25	Hednesford Town - Cleethorpes Town	1:0 ✺
18.11.25	Hednesford Town - Bamber Bridge	3:0 ✺
11.11.25	Hednesford Town - Hyde United	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Hednesford Town - Stocksbridge Park Steels	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Guiseley - Hednesford Town	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
30.09.17	Ashton United - Hednesford Town	1:2
12.08.17	Hednesford Town - Ashton United	1:1
17.09.16	Hednesford Town - Ashton United	2:2
20.08.16	Ashton United - Hednesford Town	2:0

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