Match Info

ENGLAND: NPL PREMIER DIVISION - ROUND 13

Date: 21 October 2023, Saturday


	Ashton United		Radcliffe

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.7	1.8
	3.5	3.75	1.83
	3.35	4.09	1.86
	3.35	4.1	1.86
	3.6	3.75	1.8
	3.45	3.76	1.83
	3.5	3.75	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (2.92)	3.84 ↑ (3.7)	1.83 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ashton United
26.4%

Draw
23.7%

Radcliffe
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

24.4%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

25%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Radcliffe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Radcliffe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radcliffe than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Ashton United - Radcliffe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ashton won 2.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Radcliffe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Radcliffe have a series of home games.

Radcliffe will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ashton won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Ashton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
17.10.23	Ashton United - Matlock Town	5:0 ✺
English FA Cup
14.10.23	Kidderminster Harriers - Ashton United	2:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
03.10.23	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	4:3 ✺
English FA Cup
30.09.23	Lancaster City - Ashton United	0:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
26.09.23	Ashton United - Bradford Park Avenue	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLWWW
- Radcliffe FC
English NPL Premier Division
14.10.23	Radcliffe - Ilkeston	3:0 ✺
10.10.23	Radcliffe - Macclesfield Town	4:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
07.10.23	Radcliffe - Whitby Town	3:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
26.09.23	Marine - Radcliffe	3:2 ✺
23.09.23	Radcliffe - Worksop Town	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
11.02.23	Ashton United - Radcliffe	1:2
22.10.22	Radcliffe - Ashton United	1:1
26.02.22	Radcliffe - Ashton United	0:2
09.11.21	Ashton United - Radcliffe	3:1
21.01.20	Radcliffe - Ashton United	1:1
30.11.19	Ashton United - Radcliffe	0:3

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