Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 29

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday


	Lancaster City		Ashton United

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.25	3.1
	1.9	3.62	3.52
	2.06	3.58	3.27	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.25
	2	3.36	3.29
	1.9	3.6	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.18)	3.44 ↓ (3.51)	3.32 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
46%

Draw
26.5%

Ashton United
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

26.5%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

26.4%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Lancaster City - Ashton United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
9', 1 - 0, Lawson D. ⚽,
26', 1 - 1, Gilchrist J. ⚽,
33', 2 - 1, Evangelinos N. ⚽,
42', 2 - 2, Gilchrist J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 3 - 2, Bailey S. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 2.

Lancaster has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ashton has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ashton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lancaster has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lancaster won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.6:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12:11	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Ashton United - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 30.88%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
17.01.26	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	3:0 ✺
01.01.26	Workington - Lancaster City	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Lancaster City - Bamber Bridge	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	United of Manchester - Lancaster City	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Warrington Rylands - Lancaster City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
24.01.26	Ashton United - Warrington Rylands	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Hebburn Town - Ashton United	1:0 ✺
01.01.26	United of Manchester - Ashton United	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Ashton United - Hyde United	1:1 ✺
19.12.25	Prescot Cables - Ashton United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Ashton United - Lancaster City	1:3
15.02.25	Ashton United - Lancaster City	2:1
19.10.24	Lancaster City - Ashton United	2:2
05.03.24	Ashton United - Lancaster City	5:0
14.11.23	Lancaster City - Ashton United	2:1
English FA Cup
30.09.23	Lancaster City - Ashton United	0:2
English NPL Premier Division
15.04.23	Ashton United - Lancaster City	2:4

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