Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 32

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Ashton United		Stockton Town

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.45	2
	3.04	3.55	2.04
	3.18	3.74	2.05	Watch
	3	3.25	2
	3.17	3.44	2.02
	2.5	3.6	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.52)	3.51 ↓ (3.62)	2.09 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ashton United
30.4%

Draw
26%

Stockton Town
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

25.7%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

25.2%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ashton United's form might have worsened.

Stockton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stockton Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ashton United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockton Town than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stockton Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ashton United - Stockton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Lusiama E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', 1 - 1, Hayes K. ⚽,
82', 1 - 2, Hayes K. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ashton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Stockton Town might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Ashton won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12:11	1	12
16	Stockton	12	3	2	7	15:22	-7	11

Last Results with these Odds

Ashton United - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.87%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Stockton Town - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.46%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
07.02.26	Ashton United - Warrington Town	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Lancaster City - Ashton United	3:2 ✺
24.01.26	Ashton United - Warrington Rylands	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Hebburn Town - Ashton United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLWL
- Stockton Town
English NPL Premier Division
10.02.26	Stockton Town - Prescot Cables	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Bamber Bridge - Stockton Town	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Stockton Town - Cleethorpes Town	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Guiseley - Stockton Town	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Stockton Town - Hednesford Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Stockton Town - Ashton United	1:2
15.03.25	Ashton United - Stockton Town	0:1
09.11.24	Stockton Town - Ashton United	1:2

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