Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)


	Astana		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.85	5.7
	1.52	3.79	5.99	Watch
	1.48	3.75	5.5
	1.46	3.92	8.1
	1.48	3.8	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.44)	3.82 ↓ (3.83)	6.18 ↓ (7.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
61.3%

Draw
23.9%

Kaspiy Aktau
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.1%

24.1%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

23.4%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Kaspiy Aktau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Astana - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 4.

Astana is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kaspiy has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Astana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Astana is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Astana won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:12. (average 2.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:6. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
16.08.26	Kyzylzhar - Astana	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Astana - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Ulytau - Astana	0:2 ✺
26.07.26	Astana - Altai Semey	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Astana - Dinamo City	1:4 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWWWL
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
16.08.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau	3:2 ✺
26.07.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhenis	3:2 ✺
18.07.26	Kaisar - Kaspiy Aktau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
03.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:0
02.07.23	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:2
24.06.23	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	3:1
10.09.22	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	0:3
22.04.22	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	4:0
Kazakh Cup
22.09.21	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	0:1 ET
21.08.21	Astana - Kaspiy Aktau	3:3

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