Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar) 🌤️ ...


	Ertis Pavlodar		Astana

	1	X	2
	3.70	3.40	1.80
	3.80	3.35	1.73	Watch
	3.87	3.65	1.84
	3.59	3.57	1.89
	3.80	3.50	1.79
	3.94	3.68	1.84	Watch
	3.75	3.55	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↑ (3.76)	3.53 ↓ (3.58)	1.82 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
24.1%

Draw
25.8%

Astana
50.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.7%

25.9%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

25.3%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Ertis Pavlodar - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Astana will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rikhard M. (G) 17. Opeh S. 5. Toleuov B. 25. Jevtic M. 66. Malikaydar S. 6. Shimamura Y. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 12. Karimov R. 97. Poe J. 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 8. Esimbekov D.	74. Seysen M. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 6. Kasym A. 5. Kazukolovas K. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 9. Islamkhan B. 7. Karaman D. 8. Basic I. 10. Tomasov M. (C) 81. Karimov R. 17. Marat D.
Substitutes
13. Baybosynov N. 21. Berdibek D. 32. Falaye O. A. 24. Khalmatov M. 9. Leonardo Kalil 26. Mbodj M. 77. Nurlan A. 15. Nyrkov D. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 35. Ramos L. 14. Raskatov V. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G)	47. Abrayev M. 20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 15. Beysebekov A. 29. Buric N. 93. Condric J. (G) 99. Karpikov D. (G) 21. Merkel A. 45. Miladinovic I. 77. Shomko D.
Coaches
Shoytymov E.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Poe J. 🟨,
39', Shimamura Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Shimamura Y. ↓, Khalmatov M. ↑,
46', Poe J. ↓, Leonardo Kalil ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Islamkhan B. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Esimbekov D. ↓, Falaye O. A. ↑,
67', Karaman D. ↓, Beysebekov A. ↑,
67', Marat D. ↓, Abrayev M. ↑,
71', Mukhametzhanov T. ↓, Berdibek D. ↑,
79', Karimov R. ↓, Nurlan A. ↑,
80', Islamkhan B. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
81', Karimov R. ↓, Buric N. ↑,
88', Tomasov M. ↓, Shomko D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 2.

Ertis has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Astana is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ertis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Astana will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:44. (average 0.9:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:19. (average 0.9:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	46:29	17	53
12	Ertis Pavlodar	29	7	8	14	29:44	-15	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
10.10.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kyzylzhar	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	Altai Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWWLW
- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
10.10.26	Tobol Kostanay - Astana	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	Astana - Kairat	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Ordabasy - Astana	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Astana - Yelimay Semey	4:0 ✺
30.08.26	Atyrau - Astana	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
10.11.19	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	0:2
15.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	0:4
05.05.19	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	0:1
11.11.18	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	4:0
17.06.18	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	3:0
07.04.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	1:6

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