Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)


	Ertis Pavlodar		Astana

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.20	1.94
	3.59	3.57	1.89
	4.02	3.62	1.86
	3.5	3.5	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↓ (3.76)	3.47 ↓ (3.58)	1.88 (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
25.3%

Draw
26.2%

Astana
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

25.9%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

25.3%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Ertis Pavlodar - Astana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 2.

Ertis has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Astana is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ertis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Astana will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:44. (average 0.9:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:19. (average 0.9:2.4).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
18.09.26	Altai Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWLWL
- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
17.09.26	Astana - Kairat	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Ordabasy - Astana	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Astana - Yelimay Semey	4:0 ✺
30.08.26	Atyrau - Astana	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Kyzylzhar - Astana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
10.11.19	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	0:2
15.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	0:4
05.05.19	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	0:1
11.11.18	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	4:0
17.06.18	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	3:0
07.04.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	1:6

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