The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tobol Kostanay 31.3%
Draw 25.6%
Astana 43%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
33.9%
21.2%
44.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.1%
21.3%
44.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
Tobol Kostanay - Astana Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
44. Ustimenko D. (G) 72. Senhadji R. 25. Borsic A. 5. Ndiaye P. 21. Zhagorov N. 14. Talal A. 6. Myakish M. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 19. Zhumat D. 7. Zhumashev Z. 30. Guerra L.
74. Seysen M. (G) 6. Kasym A. 45. Miladinovic I. 5. Kazukolovas K. 2. Bartolec K. 7. Karaman D. 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 10. Tomasov M. 17. Marat D. 29. Buric N.
Substitutes
3. Asrankulov R. 34. Bakhytkiriev S. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 4. Cavnic N. 13. Cisse A. 99. Lisakovich V. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 18. Milovanovic U. 17. Zuev A.
47. Abrayev M. 20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 72. Basmanov S. 93. Condric J. (G) 9. Islamkhan B. 81. Karimov R. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 21. Merkel A. 77. Shomko D. 71. Tolendi A.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.
Babayan G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Talal A. ⚽, Guerra L. (A),
45+2', Marat D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 1 - 1, Bartolec K. ⚽, Marat D. (A),
56', Kasym A. ↓, Merkel A. ↑,
56', Karaman D. ↓, Islamkhan B. ↑,
56', Buric N. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
59', Karimov R. 🟨,
59', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Lisakovich V. ↑,
59', Zhumat D. ↓, Milovanovic U. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Lisakovich V. ⚽, Talal A. (A),
66', Marat D. ↓, Basmanov S. ↑,
72', Zhagorov N. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
79', Guerra L. 🟨,
80', Basmanov S. 🟨,
85', Beysebekov A. ↓, Abrayev M. ↑,
90', Tagybergen A. ↓, Cavnic N. ↑,
90+8', Vorogovskiy Y. 🟨,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 7th and 3rd in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 3.
In recent outings, Tobol has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Astana shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Astana is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tobol has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:23 (averaging 1.2:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tobol against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 11:10 goals (averaging 1:0.9 per game).