Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Sariev B. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Astana		Okzhetpes

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.50	4.10	4.80
	1.55	4.25	4.85	Watch
	1.5	4.47	5.23
	1.53	4.34	4.94	Watch
	1.46	4.4	5.15
	1.54	4.37	5.21	Watch
	1.52	4.1	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.68)	4.29 ↑ (3.71)	4.98 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
60.4%

Draw
21.3%

Okzhetpes
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

24.8%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

23.9%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Astana's performance.

Okzhetpes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Okzhetpes than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Astana - Okzhetpes Predictions

Users Predictions: Astana will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
74. Seysen M. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 3. Kalaica B. 5. Kazukolovas K. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 9. Islamkhan B. 7. Karaman D. 8. Basic I. 10. Tomasov M. (C) 81. Karimov R. 72. Basmanov S.	22. Lobantsev M. (G) 63. Kuzmichev I. 5. Leo Assunpcao 3. Lototskyi B. 14. Mukanov S. 9. Borodin D. 25. Marcinho 47. Vasiljev V. 6. Mukhametkhanov Z. 19. Omirtaev O. (C) 8. Buribaev N.
Substitutes
47. Abrayev M. 20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 15. Beysebekov A. 29. Buric N. 93. Condric J. (G) 99. Karpikov D. (G) 6. Kasym A. 17. Marat D. 21. Merkel A. 45. Miladinovic I. 77. Shomko D.	91. Abdumannonov B. 67. Atykhanov R. 20. Ensebaev M. 1. Golubnichiy M. (G) 10. Nurgaliyev E. 90. Sadovski U. (. 77. Sovpel V. 17. Umarov S. 7. Vomenko V. 2. Zhaksylykov Z. 11. Zhangylyshbay T. 4. Zyabko V.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Alyuetov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Lototskyi B. ⚽, Borodin D. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Bartolec K. ⚽, Karimov R. (A),
40', 2 - 1, Tomasov M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Omirtaev O. ↓, Sadovski U. (. ↑,
63', Buribaev N. ↓, Umarov S. ↑,
65', Islamkhan B. ↓, Abrayev M. ↑,
65', Basmanov S. ↓, Beysebekov A. ↑,
67', Sadovski U. (. 🟨,
72', Mukhametkhanov Z. 🟨,
73', Mukhametkhanov Z. ↓, Zhangylyshbay T. ↑,
75', Abrayev M. 🟨,
81', Lototskyi B. 🟨,
81', Lototskyi B. ↓, Nurgaliyev E. ↑,
81', Marcinho ↓, Sovpel V. ↑,
87', Karimov R. ↓, Buric N. ↑,
90+2', Tomasov M. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
90+2', Karaman D. ↓, Merkel A. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 4.

Astana is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Okzhetpes has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Okzhetpes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Astana is considered a favorite.

We predict that Astana will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Astana won 16 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 44:11. (average 2.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 27:5. (average 3:0.6).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
4	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	41:35	6	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
02.08.26	Ulytau - Astana	0:2 ✺
26.07.26	Astana - Altai Semey	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Astana - Dinamo City	1:4 AET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
12.07.26	Astana - Aktobe	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.07.26	Dinamo City - Astana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLWW
- FC Okzhetpes
Kazakh Premier League
02.08.26	Okzhetpes - Altai Semey	4:1 ✺
25.07.26	Aktobe - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Okzhetpes - Zhetysu	2:0 ✺
12.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Okzhetpes	3:1 ✺
02.07.26	Kairat - Okzhetpes	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
16.05.26	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:0
28.09.25	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:2
15.06.25	Astana - Okzhetpes	5:2
Kazakh Cup
13.04.25	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:2 penalties
Kazakh Premier League
27.09.23	Astana - Okzhetpes	5:2
14.05.23	Okzhetpes - Astana	0:0
26.10.20	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:5

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