The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tobol Kostanay 44.3%
Draw 26.1%
Okzhetpes 29.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
25.5%
22.5%
52%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.2%
21.1%
48.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol Kostanay's performance.
Okzhetpes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Okzhetpes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-17.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol Kostanay that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Okzhetpes than the current prediction. (+19.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Okzhetpes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
95.5%
4.5%
0%
Tobol Kostanay - Okzhetpes Predictions
Users Predictions:
43 users predict this event. Tobol will win (votes: 41 - 95.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 4.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 89% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tobol Kostanay will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
44. Ustimenko D. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 72. Senhadji R. 5. Ndiaye P. 25. Borsic A. 17. Zuev A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 13. Cisse A. 10. Chesnokov I. 18. Milovanovic U. 14. Talal A.
22. Lobantsev M. (G) 14. Mukanov S. 63. Kuzmichev I. 5. Leo Assunpcao 3. Lototskyi B. 6. Mukhametkhanov Z. 9. Borodin D. 8. Buribaev N. 17. Umarov S. 47. Vasiljev V. 19. Omirtaev O. (C)
Substitutes
3. Asrankulov R. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 30. Guerra L. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 56. Musaev E. 6. Myakish M. 19. Zhumat D.
91. Abdumannonov B. 67. Atykhanov R. 20. Ensebaev M. 1. Golubnichiy M. (G) 10. Nurgaliyev E. 90. Sadovski U. (. 77. Sovpel V. 7. Vomenko V. 2. Zhaksylykov Z. 11. Zhangylyshbay T.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.
Alyuetov R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Tagybergen A. (Penalty Awarded),
42', Talal A. ↓, Guerra L. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Mukhametkhanov Z. 🟨,
59', Cisse A. ↓, Myakish M. ↑,
61', 2 - 0, Senhadji R. ⚽, Guerra L. (A),
62', Buribaev N. ↓, Nurgaliyev E. ↑,
62', Mukanov S. ↓, Sovpel V. ↑,
63', Umarov S. ↓, Zhangylyshbay T. ↑,
64', 3 - 0, Guerra L. ⚽, Borsic A. (A),
74', 3 - 1, Borodin D. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Omirtaev O. ↓, Abdumannonov B. ↑,
75', Senhadji R. ↓, Marochkin A. ↑,
81', Vasiljev V. ↓, Sadovski U. (. ↑,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 4.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Okzhetpes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Tobol might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 13 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:14. (average 1.5:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:6. (average 1.8:0.6).
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Ustimenko D. (G) 
Senhadji R. 
Borsic A. 
Cisse A. 
Milovanovic U. 
Talal A. 
Lobantsev M. (G) 
Leo Assunpcao 
Lototskyi B. 
Borodin D. 
Umarov S. 
Guerra L. 
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