Match Info

Super League - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium (Tripoli)

Referee: Tsimenteridis S. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	SportPlus
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Usa	SportPlus


	Asteras Tripolis		PAOK

	1	X	2
	5	4.2	1.56	Watch
	5.6	4	1.59
	5.83	4.08	1.59
	6.67	1.63	3.27	Watch
	5.75	3.96	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.77 ↑ (5.35)	3.57 ↓ (3.73)	1.92 ↑ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Asteras Tripolis
17.8%

Draw
28.7%

PAOK
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

25.1%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.1%

24.5%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Asteras Tripolis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

PAOK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Asteras Tripolis than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that PAOK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	0%	84.6%

Asteras Tripolis - PAOK Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Asteras Tripolis (1.79) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - PAOK (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - PAOK (2.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - PAOK (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: PAOK will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): PAOK will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Asteras Tripolis (votes: 1 - 10%). PAOK (votes: 9 - 90%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Papadopoulos N. (G) 72. Fernandez D. 2. Ivanov R. 3. Sipcic N. 29. Pomonis K. 22. Munoz Mumo 69. Alagbe O. 10. Gonzalez E. 20. Kaltsas N. (C) 41. Macheda F. 11. Emmanouilidis D.	1. Pavlenka J. (G) 3. Kenny J. 16. Kedziora T. 6. Lovren D. 32. Taylor G. 8. Meite S. 2. Camara M. 77. Despodov K. 65. Konstantelias G. 11. Taison (C) 9. Chalov F.
Substitutes
17. Alho N. 68. Almyras C. 7. Bartolo J. 19. Castano P. 49. Charalampoglou G. 23. Frroku L. 9. Gioacchini N. 91. Kakadiaris T. (G) 40. Ketu K. 13. Triantafyllopoulos K. 16. Tsintotas P. (G) 5. Yablonskiy E.	21. Baba A. R. 22. Bianco A. 52. Chatsidis D. 7. Giakoumakis G. 88. Gugeshashvili L. (G) 18. Ivanusec L. 5. Michailidis G. 27. Ozdoev M. 23. Sastre J. 99. Tsiftsis A. (G) 4. Vogliacco A. 14. Zivkovic A.
Coaches
Pantelidis S.	Lucescu R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
7', 1 - 0, Macheda F. ⚽, Munoz Mumo (A),
19', Kaltsas N. 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Despodov K. (Pen),
26', 1 - 2, Konstantelias G. ⚽, Taison (A),
28', Kenny J. 🟨,
34', Fernandez D. 🟨,
34', 1 - 3, Chalov F. (Pen),
40', Camara M. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 3, Emmanouilidis D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Emmanouilidis D. 🟨,
53', Taison ↓, Zivkovic A. ↑,
53', Camara M. ↓, Ozdoev M. ↑,
56', Pomonis K. 🟨,
63', Macheda F. ↓, Gioacchini N. ↑,
63', Gonzalez E. ↓, Bartolo J. ↑,
66', Ozdoev M. 🟨,
67', Zivkovic A. 🟨,
70', Alagbe O. ↓, Almyras C. ↑,
70', Chalov F. ↓, Giakoumakis G. ↑,
71', Despodov K. ↓, Ivanusec L. ↑,
74', 3 - 3, Gioacchini N. ⚽, Emmanouilidis D. (A),
85', Papadopoulos N. 🟨,
86', Kaltsas N. ↓, Charalampoglou G. ↑,
86', Emmanouilidis D. ↓, Ketu K. ↑,
90', Pomonis K. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Asteras Tripolis won 0.

Asteras Tripolis has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, PAOK has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, PAOK is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Asteras Tripolis: Chicco J. (Inactive)

There will not play in PAOK: Pelkas D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Asteras Tripolis: Mendieta J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Asteras Tripolis won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 17:38. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Asteras Tripolis won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1.1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Asteras Tripolis
Greek Cup
24.09.25	Asteras Tripolis - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:2 ✺
Greek Super League
20.09.25	Volos - Asteras Tripolis	2:1 ✺
Greek Cup
17.09.25	AE Kifisia - Asteras Tripolis	1:1 ✺
Greek Super League
14.09.25	Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	AEK Athens - Asteras Tripolis	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTTL
- PAOK FC
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	PAOK - Maccabi Tel Aviv	0:0 ✺
Greek Super League
20.09.25	PAOK - Panetolikos	0:0 ✺
Greek Cup
17.09.25	Levadiakos - PAOK	4:1 ✺
Greek Super League
14.09.25	OFI - PAOK	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	PAOK - Atromitos Athens	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
02.03.25	PAOK - Asteras Tripolis	2:0
24.11.24	Asteras Tripolis - PAOK	1:2
17.12.23	Asteras Tripolis - PAOK	1:4
20.08.23	PAOK - Asteras Tripolis	3:0
13.02.23	Asteras Tripolis - PAOK	2:2
23.10.22	PAOK - Asteras Tripolis	2:2
19.12.21	PAOK - Asteras Tripolis	3:2

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