Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Aston Villa		Fulham

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.4
	2.28	3.35	3.25
	2.29	3.39	3.41
	3.91	3.48	1.92	Watch
	2.16	3.37	3.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.04)	3.38 ↓ (3.4)	3.13 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
38.8%

Draw
29.5%

Fulham
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

28.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

30.4%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aston Villa's form might have worsened.

Fulham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fulham's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aston Villa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fulham than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fulham, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.9%	33.3%	25.8%

Aston Villa - Fulham Predictions

Users Predictions: 66 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 27 - 40.9%). Fulham will win (votes: 17 - 25.8%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 29% – 52.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Fulham (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 7 - 31.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fulham (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.34) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 14 - 56%). Fulham (votes: 4 - 16%). Tie (votes: 7 - 28%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 12. Digne L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 26. Bogarde L. 29. Guessand E. 9. Elliott H. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.	1. Leno B. (G) 21. Castagne T. 5. Andersen J. (C) 3. Bassey C. 30. Sessegnon R. 20. Lukic S. 16. Berge S. 8. Wilson H. 24. King J. 17. Iwobi A. 7. Jimenez R.
Substitutes
40. Bizot M. (G) 10. Buendia E. 83. Burrowes B. 44. Kamara B. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 19. Sancho J. 14. Torres P.	10. Cairney T. 19. Chukwueze S. 15. Cuenca J. 22. Kevin 23. Lecomte B. (G) 6. Reed H. 33. Robinson A. 32. Smith Rowe E. 11. Traore A.
Coaches
Emery U.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Jimenez R. ⚽, Lukic S. (A),
11', Jimenez R. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
22', King J. 🟨,
32', Mings T. ↓, Torres P. ↑,
34', Lukic S. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽, Digne L. (A),
45+1', Wilson H. 🟨,
45+5', McGinn J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Elliott H. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, McGinn J. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
51', 3 - 1, Buendia E. ⚽, Watkins O. (A),
55', Bassey C. 🟨,
65', Iwobi A. ↓, Kevin ↑,
65', King J. ↓, Smith Rowe E. ↑,
72', McGinn J. ↓, Kamara B. ↑,
80', Wilson H. ↓, Chukwueze S. ↑,
80', Sessegnon R. ↓, Robinson A. ↑,
82', Bogarde L. ↓, Lindelof V. ↑,
83', Guessand E. ↓, Malen D. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 5.

Recent performances by Aston Villa have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fulham is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Fulham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fulham has had a series of home games.

Aston Villa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Onana A. (Hamstring Injury) Tielemans Y. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Fulham: Kevin (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:25. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Aston Villa - Bologna	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Sunderland - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
16.09.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	2:1 penalties ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Everton - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WTLTL
- Fulham FC
English League Cup
23.09.25	Fulham - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Fulham - Brentford	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Fulham - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Chelsea - Fulham	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.25	Fulham - Bristol City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
03.05.25	Aston Villa - Fulham	1:0
19.10.24	Fulham - Aston Villa	1:3
17.02.24	Fulham - Aston Villa	1:2
12.11.23	Aston Villa - Fulham	3:1
Club Friendly
26.07.23	Fulham - Aston Villa	0:2
English Premier League
25.04.23	Aston Villa - Fulham	1:0
20.10.22	Fulham - Aston Villa	3:0

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