Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: New Balance Arena (Bergamo)

Referee: Arena A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Sport TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play
Finland	DAZN, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
India	ZEE5
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, NBC Universo, Paramount+, Peacock, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Venezuela	Disney+


	Atalanta		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	5
	1.68	3.90	5.00
	1.72	3.6	4.9	Watch
	1.73	3.85	5.47
	1.7	3.73	5.19	Watch
	1.68	3.7	5.4
	1.7	3.88	5.1
	1.71	3.9	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.53)	3.8 ↓ (4.14)	5.16 ↓ (6.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
56.3%

Draw
25.2%

Cagliari
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

23%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

22.1%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atalanta's form might have worsened.

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atalanta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.4%	8.9%	6.7%

Atalanta - Cagliari Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Cagliari (2.12) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - no (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Atalanta (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atalanta will win (38 of 45 users predict this - 84.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.85% – 95.03%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Cagliari (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 16. Bellanova R. 3. Kossounou O. 42. Scalvini G. 23. Kolasinac S. 10. Samardzic L. 19. Kessie F. 13. Ederson (C) 17. De Ketelaere C. 9. Scamacca G. 11. Rowe J.	1. Caprile E. (G) 2. Pedro J. 14. Deiola A. (C) 15. Rodriguez J. 33. Obert A. 8. Adopo M. 4. Romano A. 6. Winks H. 10. Fazzini J. 70. Maldini D. 31. Mendy P.
Substitutes
47. Bernasconi L. 99. Elmas E. 31. Kristensen T. 90. Krstovic N. 40. Obric R. 8. Pasalic M. 22. Pompei T. (G) 18. Raspadori G. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 59. Zalewski N. 77. Zappacosta D.	30. Akarakiri D. 24. Aurelio G. 20. Ciervo R. 39. Fadera A. 21. Gagliardini R. 9. Kevin 22. Kofler R. 27. Liteta J. 79. Massolin Y. 26. Mina Y. 23. Radunovic B. (G) 12. Sherri A. (G) 35. Sugamele A. 28. Sugawara Y. 32. Sulev I.
Coaches
Sarri M.	Pisacane F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Mendy P. ⚽, Adopo M. (A),
41', 1 - 1, Scamacca G. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Fazzini J. ↓, Fadera A. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Maldini D. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Kolasinac S. ↓, Bernasconi L. ↑,
68', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
68', Pedro J. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
77', Samardzic L. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
79', Mendy P. ↓, Kevin ↑,
79', Maldini D. ↓, Kofler R. ↑,
86', Kessie F. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 2.

Atalanta is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cagliari's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cagliari may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Cagliari has had a series of home games.

In this match, Atalanta is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.6:1.1).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Atalanta: 0.79% Cagliari: 0.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5:2	3	12
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5:7	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 62.2%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Roma - Atalanta	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Atalanta - Bologna	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
23.08.26	Atalanta - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.08.26	Atalanta - Hapoel Tel Aviv	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWWT
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
07.09.26	Cagliari - Lecce	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.09.26	Cagliari - Verona	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
30.08.26	Cagliari - Inter Milan	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Parma - Cagliari	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
14.08.26	Cagliari - Arezzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
27.04.26	Cagliari - Atalanta	3:2
13.12.25	Atalanta - Cagliari	2:1
15.02.25	Atalanta - Cagliari	0:0
14.12.24	Cagliari - Atalanta	0:1
07.04.24	Cagliari - Atalanta	2:1
24.09.23	Atalanta - Cagliari	2:0
06.02.22	Atalanta - Cagliari	1:2

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