Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 28

Date: 24 February 2025, Monday

Location: Stadio comunale (Caravaggio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia


	Atalanta U23		AlbinoLeffe

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.05	2.5
	2.58	3.32	2.66
	2.7	3.32	2.54	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.5
	2.52	3.24	2.48	Watch
	2.6	3.05	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2)	3.18 ↓ (3.32)	2.53 ↓ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta U23
35.1%

Draw
28.7%

AlbinoLeffe
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

28.7%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atalanta U23's form might have worsened.

AlbinoLeffe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AlbinoLeffe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta U23 than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atalanta U23, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AlbinoLeffe than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AlbinoLeffe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	13.3%	73.3%

Atalanta U23 - AlbinoLeffe Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Atalanta U23 will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). AlbinoLeffe will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AlbinoLeffe: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Vismara P. (G) 37. Navarro A. 15. Obric R. 66. Bergonzi F. 20. Ceresoli A. 8. Gyabuaa M. (C) 10. Panada S. 33. Bernasconi L. 82. Lonardo E. 11. Vavassori D. 99. Vlahovic V.	22. Marietta C. (G) 6. Boloca G. 4. Potop S. 30. Baroni R. 33. Borghini D. (C) 27. Munari D. 14. Fossati M. 18. Parlati S. 20. Ambrosini M. 9. Longo S. 10. Zoma M. A.
Substitutes
26. Alessio F. 34. Artesani N. 30. Bertini T. (G) 13. Comi P. 77. Dajcar M. (G) 14. Ghislandi D. 32. Mencaraglia F. 51. Peli L. 5. Pounga D. K. 25. Scheffer M. 93. Soppy B.	19. Agostinelli M. 26. Angeloni M. 15. Astrologo A. 2. Barba B. 73. Bosia L. 1. Facchetti L. (G) 5. Giannini E. 7. Mustacchio M. 21. Ricordi T. 46. Sorrentino L. 12. Taramelli M. (G) 8. Zanini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Zoma M. A. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Vavassori D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Baroni R. ↓, Bosia L. ↑,
46', Borghini D. ↓, Barba B. ↑,
53', Fossati M. 🟨,
57', Lonardo E. ↓, Scheffer M. ↑,
72', Ceresoli A. ↓, Soppy B. ↑,
73', Longo S. ↓, Sorrentino L. ↑,
74', Parlati S. ↓, Agostinelli M. ↑,
87', Zoma M. A. ↓, Mustacchio M. ↑,
90', Vavassori D. ↓, Alessio F. ↑,

Preview

Atalanta U23 is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

AlbinoLeffe is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atalanta U23 will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Atalanta U23 won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1.3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Atalanta U23 won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta U23
Italian Serie C Group A
16.02.25	Giana Erminio - Atalanta U23	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	Atalanta U23 - Virtus Verona	0:3 ✺
02.02.25	Pergolettese - Atalanta U23	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Atalanta U23 - Lumezzane	0:1 ✺
18.01.25	Atalanta U23 - Triestina	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW
- UC AlbinoLeffe
Italian Serie C Group A
16.02.25	AlbinoLeffe - FeralpiSalò	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	AlbinoLeffe - Renate	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Pro Patria - AlbinoLeffe	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	AlbinoLeffe - Giana Erminio	0:3 ✺
19.01.25	Pergolettese - AlbinoLeffe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
12.10.24	AlbinoLeffe - Atalanta U23	2:2
13.02.24	AlbinoLeffe - Atalanta U23	0:1
07.10.23	Atalanta U23 - AlbinoLeffe	1:1

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