Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 23

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio comunale (Caravaggio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Max


	Atalanta U23		Triestina

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.5	3.25
	1.91	3.3	3.1
	1.94	3.82	3.47	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.4
	1.86	3.6	3.52	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.78)	3.49 ↑ (3.44)	3.31 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta U23
47.1%

Draw
25.8%

Triestina
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

26%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

25.2%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Triestina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta U23 than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Atalanta U23 - Triestina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pardel P. (G) 8. Gyabuaa M. (C) 15. Obric R. 37. Navarro A. 25. Scheffer M. 5. Kraja E. 10. Panada S. 33. Bernasconi L. 31. Cassa F. 34. Artesani N. 99. Vlahovic V.	1. Roos K. (G) 21. Tonetto M. 44. Bianconi A. 5. Frare D. 16. Fiordilino L. 4. Vallocchia A. 15. Correia O. (C) 17. Jonsson K. 30. D'Urso C. 99. Olivieri M. 27. Udoh K.
Substitutes
30. Bertini T. (G) 4. Berto G. 29. Camara H. 13. Comi P. 72. Cortinovis A. 77. Dajcar M. (G) 14. Ghislandi D. 82. Lonardo E. 32. Mencaraglia F. 7. Muhameti E.	11. Attys C. 2. Bianay Balcot C. 3. Bijleveld T. 18. Cancellieri D. 22. Diakite M. (G) 8. El Azrak R. 46. Embalo Sambu B. 73. Krollis R. 38. Mutavcic M. 19. Silvestri T. 9. Vertainen E. 7. Vicario J. 42. Voca I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Vlahovic V. ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, Scheffer M. ⚽,
39', Tonetto M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Udoh K. ↓, Vertainen E. ↑,
53', 3 - 0, Vlahovic V. ⚽,
55', D'Urso C. ↓, El Azrak R. ↑,
55', Fiordilino L. ↓, Embalo Sambu B. ↑,
58', 🟥,
60', Pardel P. 🟨,
60', 3 - 1, Olivieri M. ⚽,
74', Artesani N. ↓, Mencaraglia F. ↑,
75', Kraja E. ↓, Muhameti E. ↑,
78', Navarro A. 🟨,
79', Scheffer M. ↓, Ghislandi D. ↑,
79', Cassa F. ↓, Camara H. ↑,
81', Vallocchia A. ↓, Attys C. ↑,
88', Vlahovic V. ↓, Lonardo E. ↑,
88', Tonetto M. ↓, Cancellieri D. ↑,
90+3', Jonsson K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Atalanta U23 will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Atalanta U23 won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 2.7:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Atalanta U23 won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta U23
Italian Serie C Group A
11.01.25	Trento - Atalanta U23	2:2 ✺
04.01.25	Atalanta U23 - Novara	0:0 ✺
20.12.24	Alcione - Atalanta U23	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Atalanta U23 - Lecco	5:2 ✺
11.12.24	Atalanta U23 - Union Clodiense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TTWWW
- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie C Group A
11.01.25	Caldiero Terme - Triestina	0:2 ✺
04.01.25	Triestina - Union Clodiense	3:0 ✺
21.12.24	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Triestina	3:0 ✺
14.12.24	Novara - Triestina	2:3 ✺
08.12.24	Triestina - Vicenza Virtus	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
15.09.24	Triestina - Atalanta U23	1:5
03.04.24	Triestina - Atalanta U23	1:1
05.12.23	Atalanta U23 - Triestina	2:1

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