Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 21

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio comunale (Caravaggio)


	Atalanta U23		Novara

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.6	5
	1.6	3.7	5.4
	1.73	3.56	4.72	Watch
	1.6	3.5	5.5
	1.59	3.64	5.12	Watch
	1.6	3.7	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.93)	3.62 ↑ (3.38)	5.19 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta U23
56.9%

Draw
25.4%

Novara
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

27.1%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

26.2%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atalanta U23's performance.

Novara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Novara might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta U23 than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atalanta U23 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novara than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Novara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Atalanta U23 - Novara Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Atalanta U23 will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Novara will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pardel P. (G) 33. Bernasconi L. 31. Cassa F. 3. Del Lungo T. 8. Gyabuaa M. (C) 21. Manzoni A. 37. Navarro A. 15. Obric R. 10. Panada S. 25. Scheffer M. 99. Vlahovic V.	1. Minelli S. (G) 72. Agyemang G. 99. Basso G. 5. Bertoncini D. 19. Calcagni R. 28. Cannavaro A. 10. Donadio C. 26. Lorenzini F. 70. Manseri K. 23. Morosini L. 21. Ranieri R. (C)
Substitutes
34. Artesani N. 30. Bertini T. (G) 13. Comi P. 72. Cortinovis A. 77. Dajcar M. (G) 5. Kraja E. 6. Masi A. 7. Muhameti E. 20. Renault G. 39. Sodero A. 93. Soppy B.	17. Attanasio F. 4. Cancola D. 31. Desjardins A. (G) 90. Ganz S. 7. Gerardini F. 24. Ghiringhelli L. 15. Khailoti O. 44. Koblar L. 3. Migliardi F. 12. Negri E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Del Lungo T. 🟨,
13', Cannavaro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Obric R. 🟨,
65', Manzoni A. ↓, Soppy B. ↑,
68', Calcagni R. ↓, Ghiringhelli L. ↑,
68', Manseri K. ↓, Gerardini F. ↑,
75', Morosini L. ↓, Ganz S. ↑,
79', Agyemang G. ↓, Migliardi F. ↑,
90+1', Cassa F. ↓, Cortinovis A. ↑,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Atalanta U23 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atalanta U23 is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Atalanta U23 won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Atalanta U23 won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta U23
Italian Serie C Group A
20.12.24	Alcione - Atalanta U23	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Atalanta U23 - Lecco	5:2 ✺
11.12.24	Atalanta U23 - Union Clodiense	2:1 ✺
08.12.24	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Atalanta U23	3:1 ✺
04.12.24	Padova - Atalanta U23	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWLL
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
21.12.24	Novara - FeralpiSalò	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Novara - Triestina	2:3 ✺
06.12.24	Trento - Novara	1:3 ✺
01.12.24	Novara - Lumezzane	0:0 ✺
24.11.24	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Novara	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
01.09.24	Novara - Atalanta U23	0:3
02.03.24	Atalanta U23 - Novara	0:0
24.10.23	Novara - Atalanta U23	2:3

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