Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 22

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Briamasco (Trento)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256


	Trento		Novara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.02	3.2	3.5
	1.96	3.28	3.69	Watch
	1.95	3	3.4
	1.98	3.22	3.94	Watch
	1.93	3.33	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.06)	3.21 ↓ (3.24)	3.67 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trento
46.5%

Draw
28.5%

Novara
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28.4%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

28.1%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Novara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trento than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novara than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Trento - Novara Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Trento (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Tommasi M. (G) 27. Triacca D. 5. Sangalli M. 28. Corradi C. 44. Maffei M. 29. Fiamozzi R. (C) 20. Benedetti G. 23. Aucelli C. 24. Dalmonte N. 11. Pellegrini J. 7. Capone C.	1. Boseggia E. (G) 70. Valdesi A. 26. Lorenzini F. (C) 28. Cannavaro A. 72. Agyemang G. 8. Di Cosmo L. 99. Basso G. 19. Collodel R. 10. Donadio C. 90. Perini G. 11. Ledonne N.
Substitutes
1. Barlocco S. (G) 70. Calza G. 36. Candelari P. 71. Chinetti F. 38. Corallo C. 6. Fedele S. 14. Fossati M. 37. Genco A. 21. Ladisa M. 31. Malinverni N. D. (G) 39. Miranda K. 19. Muca Z. 4. Trainotti A.	9. Alberti T. 36. Arboscello R. 6. Citi A. 65. Cortese A. 71. D'Alessio L. 17. Dell'Erba D. 15. Khailoti O. 7. Lanini E. 4. Malaspina M. 23. Morosini L. 16. Raffaelli M. (G) 21. Ranieri R. 12. Rossetti M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Agyemang G. 🟨,
19', Di Cosmo L. 🟨,
36', Capone C. ↓, Chinetti F. ↑,
39', 1 - 0, Aucelli C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Fiamozzi R. 🟨,
56', Di Cosmo L. ↓, Arboscello R. ↑,
56', Donadio C. ↓, Lanini E. ↑,
56', Perini G. ↓, Alberti T. ↑,
69', Sangalli M. 🟥,
72', 1 - 1, Alberti T. ⚽,
74', Aucelli C. ↓, Fossati M. ↑,
81', Lanini E. 🟨,
87', Pellegrini J. ↓, Corallo C. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trento won 1.

Trento is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Novara has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Trento might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Trento won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Trento won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Trento	8	3	5	0	11:5	6	14
13	Novara	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Last Results with these Odds

Novara - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 26.97%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Trento SCSD
Italian Serie C Group A
10.01.26	Brescia - Trento	2:1 ✺
03.01.26	Trento - Giana Erminio	3:1 ✺
20.12.25	Trento - Dolomiti Bellunesi	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Renate - Trento	1:1 ✺
05.12.25	Trento - Cittadella	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWTW
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
11.01.26	Novara - Dolomiti Bellunesi	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Inter U23 - Novara	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Cittadella - Novara	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Novara - Vicenza Virtus	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
07.09.25	Novara - Trento	1:1
18.04.25	Novara - Trento	3:0
06.12.24	Trento - Novara	1:3
21.01.24	Trento - Novara	1:1
17.09.23	Novara - Trento	0:3
22.04.23	Trento - Novara	2:1
17.12.22	Novara - Trento	1:1

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