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Athletic Bilbao - Qarabağ Agdam: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Champions League - League phase - Round 3
  • Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday
  • Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)
  • Referee: Pajac I. (Cro)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Athletic Bilbao Qarabağ Agdam
    Athletic Bilbao Qarabağ Agdam
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.46 ↑
    (1.34)    		 5.19 ↑
    (5.07)    		 8.23 ↓
    (9.97)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Athletic Bilbao
    68.6%    		Draw
    19.2%    		Qarabağ Agdam
    12.1%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    71.5% 18.9% 9.6%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    57.2% 15.1% 12%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-11.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Bilbao that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    64.4% 13.6% 22%

    Athletic Bilbao - Qarabağ Agdam Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 37 - 64.9%). Qarabağ will win (votes: 13 - 22.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 12.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 52.5% – 77.3%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 13 - 48.1%). Qarabağ (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Tie (votes: 9 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH 0 - Qarabağ (6.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Qarabağ (3.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - draw (7.92) (votes: 0 - 0%) .
    • AH -1.75 - Athletic (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 14 - 46.7%). Qarabağ (votes: 7 - 23.3%). Tie (votes: 9 - 30%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
      4. SpainParedes A.
    14. SpainLaporte A.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
    30. SpainRego A.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
      8. SpainSancet O.
    10. SpainWilliams N.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    		99. PolandKochalski M. (G)
      2. BrazilMatheus Silva
    13. AzerbaijanMustafazada B.
    81. ColombiaMedina K.
    44. AzerbaijanCafarquliyev E.
    35. BrazilPedro Bicalho
    20. BrazilKady Borges
    17. ColombiaDuran C.
    15. CapeLeandro Andrade
    10. FranceZoubir A. (C)
      7. AzerbaijanAkhundzade N.
    Substitutes
    12. SpainAreso J.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
    19. SpainBoiro A.
    20. SpainGomez U.
    15. SpainLekue I.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
    27. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    21. MoroccoSannadi M.
    22. SpainSerrano N.
      6. SpainVesga M.
      3. SpainVivian D.
    		11. GhanaAddai E.
    27. AzerbaijanBayramov T.
    97. CroatiaBuntic F. (G)
    32. AzerbaijanCabrayilzada H.
      6. IvoryChriso
    18. BrazilDani Bolt
    30. AzerbaijanHuseynov A.
    55. AzerbaijanHuseynov B.
      8. MontenegroJankovic M.
    21. UkraineKashchuk O.
      1. AzerbaijanMahammadaliyev S. (G)
      3. MoroccoMmaee S.
    Coaches
         SpainValverde E.
    		     AzerbaijanQurbanov Q.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 1)
    • 1', 0 - 1, Leandro Andrade ⚽,
    • 38', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
    • 40', 1 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Jauregizar M. (A),
    • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
    • 56', Pedro Bicalho ↓, Jankovic M. ↑,
    • 56', Leandro Andrade ↓, Addai E. ↑,
    • 65', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
    • 65', Rego A. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
    • 65', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
    • 67', Akhundzade N. ↓, Bayramov T. ↑,
    • 67', Duran C. ↓, Kashchuk O. ↑,
    • 70', 2 - 1, Navarro R. ⚽, Berenguer A. (A),
    • 79', Matheus Silva ↓, Dani Bolt ↑,
    • 81', Sancet O. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
    • 88', 3 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Jauregizar M. (A),

    Preview

  • In recent matches, Athletic has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • Qarabağ is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
  • Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • In this match, Athletic is the undisputed favorite.
  • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury)
  • There will not play in Qarabağ: Montiel J. (Thigh Injury) Rzayev A. (Inactive) Sheydayev R. (Inactive)
  • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    19.10.25 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺
    04.10.25 Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca 2:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    01.10.25 Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao 4:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    27.09.25 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    23.09.25 Athletic Bilbao - Girona 1:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7
    TWLLT
    - FK Qarabağ Agdam
    Azerbaijan Premier League
    17.10.25 Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam 1:2 ✺
    04.10.25 Qarabağ Agdam - Kapaz 1:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    01.10.25 Qarabağ Agdam - Copenhagen 2:0 ✺
    Azerbaijan Premier League
    26.09.25 Qarabağ Agdam - Gabala 2:0 ✺
    21.09.25 Araz Naxçıvan - Qarabağ Agdam 0:5 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6
    WWWWW
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao ✺

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