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Elche - Athletic Bilbao

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 9
  • Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Estadio Manuel Martรญnez Valero (Elche) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
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    Elche Athletic Bilbao
    Elche Athletic Bilbao
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.06 ↑
    (3.38)    		 3.35 ↑
    (3.15)    		 2.03 ↓
    (2.32)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Elche
    23.7%    		Draw
    28.8%    		Athletic Bilbao
    47.5%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    28.3% 30.4% 41.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    28.9% 30.1% 41%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
  • Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletic Bilbao's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche than the current prediction. (+5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elche, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    19.1% 10.6% 70.2%

    Elche - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Elche will win (votes: 9 - 19.1%). Athletic will win (votes: 33 - 70.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 10.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 57.1% โ€“ 83.3%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Elche (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Elche (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Athletic (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. SpainPena I. (G)
    23. SpainChust V.
      6. SpainBigas P. (C)
    21. FrancePetrot L.
    15. SpainNunez A.
    16. PortugalNeto M.
    14. SpainFebas A.
      8. SpainAguado M.
    11. SpainValera G.
      9. PortugalAndre Silva
    10. SpainMir R.
    		  1. SpainSimon U. (G)
    12. SpainAreso J.
      3. SpainVivian D.
    14. SpainLaporte A.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y. (C)
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
      8. SpainSancet O.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    Substitutes
    32. MoroccoBoayar A.
    31. SpainDelgado D.
      4. SpainDiaby B.
      1. ArgentinaDituro M. (G)
    18. SpainDonald J.
    35. SpainHouary A.
    45. SpainIturbe A. (G)
    17. SpainJosan
    30. SpainMendoza R.
      3. SpainPedrosa A.
      5. ArgentinaRedondo Solari F.
    20. SpainRodriguez A.
    		19. SpainBoiro A.
    20. SpainGomez U.
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
    25. SpainIzeta
    15. SpainLekue I.
    27. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
      4. SpainParedes A.
    30. SpainRego A.
    21. MoroccoSannadi M.
      6. SpainVesga M.
      9. GhanaWilliams I.
    10. SpainWilliams N.
    Coaches
         SpainSarabia E.
    		     SpainValverde E.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 29', Chust V. 🟨,
    • 39', Sarabia E. 🟨,
    • 44', Valera G. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 46', Guruzeta G. ↓, Williams I. ↑,
    • 46', Navarro R. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
    • 58', Sancet O. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
    • 61', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
    • 62', Petrot L. ↓, Pedrosa A. ↑,
    • 68', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
    • 75', Aguado M. ↓, Mendoza R. ↑,
    • 81', Laporte A. ↓, Paredes A. ↑,
    • 83', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
    • 89', Valera G. ↓, Josan ↑,
    • 89', Nunez A. ↓, Donald J. ↑,
    • 90+4', Vivian D. 🟨,

    Preview

  • This time weโ€™ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 9).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elche won 2.
  • Elche has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
  • Athletic is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 1).
  • Elche may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Athletic might have a minor edge in this game.
  • There will not play in Elche: Affengruber D. (Red Card) Diangana G. (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury)
  • There are questionable in Elche: Fort H. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Elche won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.1:1.4).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Elche won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1:1.5).

    • Last Results with these Odds

    Elche - the odds 3.38 are the expected chance of winning is 28.29%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Elche CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    05.10.25 Deportivo Alavรฉs - Elche 3:1 ✺
    28.09.25 Elche - Celta de Vigo 2:1 ✺
    25.09.25 Osasuna - Elche 1:1 ✺
    21.09.25 Elche - Real Oviedo 1:0 ✺
    12.09.25 Sevilla - Elche 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7
    LWTWT
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    04.10.25 Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca 2:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    01.10.25 Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao 4:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    27.09.25 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    23.09.25 Athletic Bilbao - Girona 1:1 ✺
    20.09.25 Valencia - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5
    WLLTL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    28.05.23 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 0:1
    11.09.22 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 1:4
    03.04.22 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 2:1
    16.08.21 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    22.05.21 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 2:0
    03.01.21 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 1:0
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    22.01.20 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 1:2 penalties
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Elche CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Elche - Valencia ✺
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.26 Prat - Athletic Bilbao ✺

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