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Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 8
  • Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Estadio San Mamรฉs (Bilbao) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)
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    Athletic Bilbao Mallorca
    Athletic Bilbao Mallorca
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.62 ↑
    (1.5)    		 3.76 ↓
    (4.08)    		 6.26 ↓
    (6.87)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Athletic Bilbao
    59.2%    		Draw
    25.5%    		Mallorca
    15.3%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    63.1% 23.2% 13.8%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    65.1% 22.5% 13.4%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
  • Mallorca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    59.4% 37.5% 3.1%

    Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 19 - 61.3%). Mallorca will win (votes: 1 - 3.2%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 35.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 44.2% โ€“ 78.4%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +1 - Mallorca (1.74) (votes: 4 - 57.1%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 6 - 40%). Mallorca (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
    12. SpainAreso J.
      3. SpainVivian D.
    14. SpainLaporte A.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
    22. SpainSerrano N.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
    		  1. SpainRoman L. (G)
    23. ArgentinaMaffeo P.
    24. SlovakiaValjent M.
    21. SpainRaillo A. (C)
    22. ColombiaMojica J.
    12. PortugalSamu Costa
      8. SpainMorlanes M.
    30. SpainDomenech M.
    10. SpainDarder S.
    20. SpainTorre P.
      7. KosovoMuriqi V.
    Substitutes
    19. SpainBoiro A.
    20. SpainGomez U.
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
    25. SpainIzeta
    15. SpainLekue I.
    27. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
      4. SpainParedes A.
    30. SpainRego A.
    35. SpainSanchez I.
    21. MoroccoSannadi M.
    10. SpainWilliams N.
    		13. FinlandBergstrom L. (G)
    18. SpainJoseph M.
      3. SpainLato T.
    19. SpainLlabres J.
    27. SpainLopez D.
      2. SpainMorey Bauza M.
    34. SpainOlaizola J.
    25. SpainPichu Cuellar (G)
      9. SpainPrats A.
    26. FranceSalhi I.
      6. SpainSanchez A.
    Coaches
         SpainValverde E.
    		     SpainArrasate J.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 0)
    • 9', 1 - 0, Williams I. (Pen),
    • 36', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
    • 45+2', Darder S. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
    • 48', Laporte A. 🟨,
    • 53', Williams I. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
    • 62', Serrano N. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
    • 62', Guruzeta G. ↓, Sannadi M. ↑,
    • 66', Torre P. ↓, Joseph M. ↑,
    • 66', Domenech M. ↓, Llabres J. ↑,
    • 68', Arrasate J. 🟨,
    • 75', Muriqi V. 🟨,
    • 77', 1 - 1, Samu Costa ⚽, Joseph M. (A),
    • 82', Navarro R. ↓, Izeta ↑,
    • 82', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Lekue I. ↑,
    • 82', 2 - 1, Rego A. ⚽, Areso J. (A),
    • 83', Morlanes M. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
    • 88', Mojica J. ↓, Morey Bauza M. ↑,
    • 88', Maffeo P. ↓, Lato T. ↑,
    • 89', Raillo A. 🟨,
    • 90', Areso J. 🟨,
    • 90+2', Sanchez A. 🟨,
    • 90+2', Sanchez A. 🟨,
    • 90+3', Vivian D. 🟨,
    • 90+5', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
    • 90+5', Roman L. 🟨,

    Preview

  • A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.
  • Athletic has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
  • Mallorca's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 1).
  • Mallorca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Athletic is the team to beat.
  • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Injury) Vesga M. (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in Mallorca: Asano T. (Muscle Injury) Kumbulla M. (Hamstring Injury) Mascarell O. (Hamstring Injury) Rodriguez D. (Suspended) Virgili J. (International duty)
  • There are questionable in Athletic: Berenguer A. (Toe Injury)
  • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.3:0.5).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 1.9:0.5).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    UEFA Champions League
    01.10.25 Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao 4:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    27.09.25 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    23.09.25 Athletic Bilbao - Girona 1:1 ✺
    20.09.25 Valencia - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    16.09.25 Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0
    LLTLL
    - RCD Mallorca
    Spanish LaLiga
    27.09.25 Mallorca - Deportivo Alavรฉs 1:0 ✺
    24.09.25 Real Sociedad - Mallorca 1:0 ✺
    21.09.25 Mallorca - Atlรฉtico Madrid 1:1 ✺
    15.09.25 Espanyol - Mallorca 3:2 ✺
    30.08.25 Real Madrid - Mallorca 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1
    WLTLL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    09.03.25 Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca 1:1
    28.10.24 Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    06.04.24 Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca 2:1 penalties
    Spanish LaLiga
    02.02.24 Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca 4:0
    03.09.23 Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    01.05.23 Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao 1:1
    15.08.22 Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca 0:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.26 Prat - Athletic Bilbao ✺
    - RCD Mallorca
    Spanish LaLiga2
    02.11.26 Mallorca - Cรกdiz ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    28.10.26 Alcoyano - Mallorca ✺

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