Match Info

LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
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Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Athletic Bilbao		Mallorca

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.7	6	Watch
	1.6	3.7	6.25
	1.65	3.7	5.9
	1.64	3.72	6.6
	1.54	3.98	6.57	Watch
	1.68	3.82	6.38	Watch
	1.62	3.7	6.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.5)	3.76 ↓ (4.08)	6.26 ↓ (6.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
59.2%

Draw
25.5%

Mallorca
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

23.2%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

22.5%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Mallorca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.4%	37.5%	3.1%

Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 19 - 61.3%). Mallorca will win (votes: 1 - 3.2%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 35.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 44.2% – 78.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Mallorca (1.74) (votes: 4 - 57.1%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 6 - 40%). Mallorca (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 12. Areso J. 3. Vivian D. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 22. Serrano N. 11. Guruzeta G. 23. Navarro R. 9. Williams I. (C)	1. Roman L. (G) 23. Maffeo P. 24. Valjent M. 21. Raillo A. (C) 22. Mojica J. 12. Samu Costa 8. Morlanes M. 30. Domenech M. 10. Darder S. 20. Torre P. 7. Muriqi V.
Substitutes
19. Boiro A. 20. Gomez U. 2. Gorosabel A. 25. Izeta 15. Lekue I. 27. Padilla A. (G) 4. Paredes A. 30. Rego A. 35. Sanchez I. 21. Sannadi M. 10. Williams N.	13. Bergstrom L. (G) 18. Joseph M. 3. Lato T. 19. Llabres J. 27. Lopez D. 2. Morey Bauza M. 34. Olaizola J. 25. Pichu Cuellar (G) 9. Prats A. 26. Salhi I. 6. Sanchez A.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Arrasate J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Williams I. (Pen),
36', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
45+2', Darder S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Laporte A. 🟨,
53', Williams I. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
62', Serrano N. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
62', Guruzeta G. ↓, Sannadi M. ↑,
66', Torre P. ↓, Joseph M. ↑,
66', Domenech M. ↓, Llabres J. ↑,
68', Arrasate J. 🟨,
75', Muriqi V. 🟨,
77', 1 - 1, Samu Costa ⚽, Joseph M. (A),
82', Navarro R. ↓, Izeta ↑,
82', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Lekue I. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Rego A. ⚽, Areso J. (A),
83', Morlanes M. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
88', Mojica J. ↓, Morey Bauza M. ↑,
88', Maffeo P. ↓, Lato T. ↑,
89', Raillo A. 🟨,
90', Areso J. 🟨,
90+2', Sanchez A. 🟨,
90+2', Sanchez A. 🟨,
90+3', Vivian D. 🟨,
90+5', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
90+5', Roman L. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.

Athletic has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mallorca's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mallorca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletic is the team to beat.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Injury) Vesga M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mallorca: Asano T. (Muscle Injury) Kumbulla M. (Hamstring Injury) Mascarell O. (Hamstring Injury) Rodriguez D. (Suspended) Virgili J. (International duty)

There are questionable in Athletic: Berenguer A. (Toe Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 1.9:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao	4:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Mallorca - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Real Sociedad - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Espanyol - Mallorca	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Real Madrid - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
09.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	1:1
28.10.24	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.04.24	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	2:1 penalties
Spanish LaLiga
02.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	4:0
03.09.23	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
01.05.23	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
15.08.22	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	0:0

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