Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 8, Pickx+ Sports 8
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	16:00	HBO Max
Canada	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1, Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport 4
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 5
Mexico	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Action, SuperSport OTT 3
North Central America	—	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Peru	14:00	Disney+, Fox Sports 3
Philippines	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ 360
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Singapore	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
South America	—	ESPN 6 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 7, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus


	Borussia Dortmund		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	5
	1.82	3.8	4.4
	1.75	4	4.99
	1.02	15.19	62.96	Watch
	1.86	3.9	4.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.86)	6.14 ↑ (3.82)	16.38 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
73.3%

Draw
19.5%

Athletic Bilbao
7.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.2%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

24.8%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Borussia Dortmund's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-20.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Borussia Dortmund that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	6.7%	2.9%

Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Borussia D (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Borussia D (1.23) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2, 2nd Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 2nd Half - Borussia D (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (93 of 102 users predict this - 91.18%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.68% – 96.68%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (55 of 62 users predict this - 88.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 69 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 61 - 88.4%). Athletic (votes: 3 - 4.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 7.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (C) 25. Sule N. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 7. Bellingham J. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 15. Lekue I. 18. Jauregizar M. 30. Rego A. 9. Williams I. (C) 23. Navarro R. 20. Gomez U. 21. Sannadi M.
Substitutes
14. Beier M. 10. Brandt J. 2. Couto Y. 13. Gross P. 33. Meyer A. (G) 8. Nmecha F. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 21. Silva F.	12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 19. Boiro A. 11. Guruzeta G. 14. Laporte A. 27. Padilla A. (G) 33. Perez A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 8. Sancet O. 35. Sanchez I. 26. Santos M. (G) 22. Serrano N.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Svensson D. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),
44', Paredes A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Williams I. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
46', Vivian D. ↓, Laporte A. ↑,
46', Jauregizar M. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Chukwuemeka C. ⚽, Guirassy S. (A),
59', Gorosabel A. 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽,
63', Adeyemi K. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
63', Chukwuemeka C. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
63', Gomez U. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
69', Bellingham J. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
70', Sule N. ↓, Schlotterbeck N. ↑,
80', Sannadi M. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Sabitzer M. (A),
87', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
89', Beier M. 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 1, Brandt J. ⚽, Beier M. (A),

Preview

Borussia D has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Athletic is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Drewes P. (Inactive) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Ozcan S. (Inactive) Sule N. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berenguer A. (Toe Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Vesga M. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)

We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.83.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Borussia D won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Borussia D won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Dortmund - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 51.55%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Juventus - Borussia Dortmund	4:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWTWW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.08.16	Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao	0:1

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