Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Dortmund		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	5
	1.82	3.8	4.4
	1.75	4	4.99
	1.02	15.19	62.96	Watch
	1.86	3.9	4.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.86)	6.14 ↑ (3.82)	16.38 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
73.3%

Draw
19.5%

Athletic Bilbao
7.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.2%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

24.8%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Borussia Dortmund's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-20.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Borussia Dortmund that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	6.7%	2.9%

Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Borussia D (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Borussia D (1.23) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2, 2nd Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 2nd Half - Borussia D (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (93 of 102 users predict this - 91.18%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.68% – 96.68%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (55 of 62 users predict this - 88.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 69 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 61 - 88.4%). Athletic (votes: 3 - 4.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 7.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (C) 25. Sule N. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 7. Bellingham J. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 15. Lekue I. 18. Jauregizar M. 30. Rego A. 9. Williams I. (C) 23. Navarro R. 20. Gomez U. 21. Sannadi M.
Substitutes
14. Beier M. 10. Brandt J. 2. Couto Y. 13. Gross P. 33. Meyer A. (G) 8. Nmecha F. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 21. Silva F.	12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 19. Boiro A. 11. Guruzeta G. 14. Laporte A. 27. Padilla A. (G) 33. Perez A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 8. Sancet O. 35. Sanchez I. 26. Santos M. (G) 22. Serrano N.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Svensson D. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),
44', Paredes A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Williams I. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
46', Vivian D. ↓, Laporte A. ↑,
46', Jauregizar M. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Chukwuemeka C. ⚽, Guirassy S. (A),
59', Gorosabel A. 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽,
63', Adeyemi K. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
63', Chukwuemeka C. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
63', Gomez U. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
69', Bellingham J. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
70', Sule N. ↓, Schlotterbeck N. ↑,
80', Sannadi M. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Sabitzer M. (A),
87', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
89', Beier M. 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 1, Brandt J. ⚽, Beier M. (A),

Preview

Borussia D has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Athletic is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Drewes P. (Inactive) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Ozcan S. (Inactive) Sule N. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berenguer A. (Toe Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Vesga M. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)

We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.83.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Borussia D won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Borussia D won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Dortmund - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 51.55%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Juventus - Borussia Dortmund	4:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWTWW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.08.16	Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao	0:1

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