Match Info

LaLiga - Round 6

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	14:00	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Armenia	21:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	03:00	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	19:00	DAZN
Bangladesh	23:00	Begin
Bolivia	13:00	Tigo Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	19:00	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	14:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	20:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
Chile	14:00	DirecTV Sports
China	01:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	19:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	19:00	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	19:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	12:00	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Europe	—	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	20:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	19:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Germany	19:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	20:00	Nova Sports 1
Hong Kong	01:00	M Plus Live
Hungary	19:00	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	22:30	FanCode
Indonesia	00:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Iran	20:30	IRIB Varzesh
Italy	19:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	02:00	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	20:00	Gotv
Laos	00:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	11:00	Sky Sport
Netherlands	19:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	05:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	18:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	19:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	12:00	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	01:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	19:00	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	18:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	20:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 3
Russia	20:00	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	19:00	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	01:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovenia	19:00	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	19:00	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	DGO Latin America
Spain	19:00	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	19:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	19:00	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	00:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	20:00	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	20:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	18:00	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	14:00	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Usa	13:00	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	13:00	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter


	Athletic Bilbao		Girona

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.46	4.45	7.4	Watch
	1.46	4.7	7.8
	2.07	3.44	3.46	Watch
	1.48	4.71	7.95	Watch
	1.56	4.2	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.53)	4.33 ↑ (3.7)	6.69 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
62.5%

Draw
22.7%

Girona
14.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24.6%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

23.2%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Girona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Girona than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.8%	5.3%	3.9%

Athletic Bilbao - Girona Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Athletic (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Athletic (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Athletic (3.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Girona (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (66 of 73 users predict this - 90.41%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.66% – 97.16%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (33 of 35 users predict this - 94.29%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 36 - 92.3%). Girona (votes: 2 - 5.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 4. Paredes A. 14. Laporte A. 19. Boiro A. 6. Vesga M. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 11. Guruzeta G.	13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 2. Rincon H. 16. Frances A. 17. Blind D. 24. Moreno A. 23. Martin I. (C) 22. Solis Romero J. E. 21. Gil B. 6. van de Beek D. 18. Ounahi A. 19. Vanat V.
Substitutes
12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 7. Berenguer A. 20. Gomez U. 25. Izeta 15. Lekue I. 47. Monreal I. 23. Navarro R. 30. Rego A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 21. Sannadi M. 26. Santos M. (G)	43. Andreev A. (G) 10. Asprilla Y. 44. Ba P. 28. Jordana G. 29. Kourouma L. 1. Livakovic D. (G) 4. Martinez A. 8. Portu 7. Stuani C.
Coaches
Aspiazu J.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Ounahi A. ⚽, Gil B. (A),
33', van de Beek D. ↓, Portu ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Serrano N. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
46', Boiro A. ↓, Berchiche Y. ↑,
46', Vesga M. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
46', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Jauregizar M. ⚽,
68', Ounahi A. 🟨,
76', Solis Romero J. E. ↓, Asprilla Y. ↑,
76', Gil B. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
81', Sancet O. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
86', Vanat V. ↓, Stuani C. ↑,
86', Rincon H. ↓, Kourouma L. ↑,
90+1', Martin I. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.

Athletic is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Girona is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletic is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Padilla A. (Red Card) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Vivian D. (Red Card)

There will not play in Girona: Artero R. (Ankle Injury) Juan Carlos (Knee Injury) Lemar T. (Foot Injury) Lopez D. (Muscle Injury) Vitor Reis (Red Card) Witsel A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Athletic: Williams N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Girona: Tsygankov V. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 2.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
31.08.25	Betis - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLLW
- Girona FC
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.25	Girona - Levante	0:4 ✺
14.09.25	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Girona - Sevilla	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Villarreal - Girona	5:0 ✺
15.08.25	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
08.02.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	3:0
06.10.24	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1
19.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	3:2
27.11.23	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
26.02.23	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	2:3
04.11.22	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1
29.03.19	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	1:2

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