Match Info

LaLiga - Round 6

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter


	Athletic Bilbao		Girona

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.46	4.45	7.4	Watch
	1.46	4.7	7.8
	2.07	3.44	3.46	Watch
	1.48	4.71	7.95	Watch
	1.56	4.2	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.53)	4.33 ↑ (3.7)	6.69 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
62.5%

Draw
22.7%

Girona
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24.6%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

23.6%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Girona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Girona than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.8%	5.3%	3.9%

Athletic Bilbao - Girona Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Athletic (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Athletic (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Athletic (3.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Girona (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (66 of 73 users predict this - 90.41%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.66% – 97.16%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (33 of 35 users predict this - 94.29%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 36 - 92.3%). Girona (votes: 2 - 5.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 4. Paredes A. 14. Laporte A. 19. Boiro A. 6. Vesga M. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 11. Guruzeta G.	13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 2. Rincon H. 16. Frances A. 17. Blind D. 24. Moreno A. 23. Martin I. (C) 22. Solis Romero J. E. 21. Gil B. 6. van de Beek D. 18. Ounahi A. 19. Vanat V.
Substitutes
12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 7. Berenguer A. 20. Gomez U. 25. Izeta 15. Lekue I. 47. Monreal I. 23. Navarro R. 30. Rego A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 21. Sannadi M. 26. Santos M. (G)	43. Andreev A. (G) 10. Asprilla Y. 44. Ba P. 28. Jordana G. 29. Kourouma L. 1. Livakovic D. (G) 4. Martinez A. 8. Portu 7. Stuani C.
Coaches
Aspiazu J.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Ounahi A. ⚽, Gil B. (A),
33', van de Beek D. ↓, Portu ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Serrano N. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
46', Boiro A. ↓, Berchiche Y. ↑,
46', Vesga M. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
46', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Jauregizar M. ⚽,
68', Ounahi A. 🟨,
76', Solis Romero J. E. ↓, Asprilla Y. ↑,
76', Gil B. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
81', Sancet O. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
86', Vanat V. ↓, Stuani C. ↑,
86', Rincon H. ↓, Kourouma L. ↑,
90+1', Martin I. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.

Athletic is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Girona is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletic is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Padilla A. (Red Card) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Vivian D. (Red Card)

There will not play in Girona: Artero R. (Ankle Injury) Juan Carlos (Knee Injury) Lemar T. (Foot Injury) Lopez D. (Muscle Injury) Vitor Reis (Red Card) Witsel A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Athletic: Williams N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Girona: Tsygankov V. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 2.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
31.08.25	Betis - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLLW
- Girona FC
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.25	Girona - Levante	0:4 ✺
14.09.25	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Girona - Sevilla	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Villarreal - Girona	5:0 ✺
15.08.25	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
08.02.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	3:0
06.10.24	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1
19.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	3:2
27.11.23	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
26.02.23	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	2:3
04.11.22	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1
29.03.19	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	1:2

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