Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Athletic Bilbao B		Osasuna B

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	5
	1.8	3.25	3.9
	1.68	3.5	4.75
	1.68	3.7	4.75
	1.68	3.63	4.85	Watch
	1.73	3.48	4.66
	1.85	3.25	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.94)	3.46 ↑ (3.09)	4.58 ↑ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao B
53.4%

Draw
26.6%

Osasuna B
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

29.6%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

29.2%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao B's performance.

Osasuna B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Bilbao B that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos M. (G) 3. De Luis J. 28. Monreal I. 12. Barandalla M. 2. Irurita X. 8. Lete E. 18. Garcia E. 10. Sanchez I. 22. Perez A. 11. Bujan E. 9. Sanz I.	1. Stamatakis D. (G) 23. Serrano M. 21. Ruiz R. C. 2. Arguibide I. 24. Osambela A. 16. Auria M. 6. Echegoyen M. 14. Garcia J. 8. Yoldi A. 17. Arroyo R. 9. Gonzalez D.
Substitutes
4. Dunabeitia A. 5. Ebro Cortina E. 27. Galindo I. (G) 21. Garcia B. 6. Gibelalde M. 23. Gift E. 7. Hierro A. 17. Huestamendia P. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 19. Louis-Jean J. 26. Sola J. 20. Vizcay T.	30. Anso M. 19. Bonel A. 26. Garin X. 3. Jimenez A. 22. Larrion A. 7. Lumbreras C. 11. Pedroarena M. 20. Perez B. 13. Rafa (G) 5. Santos U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Arroyo R. 🟨,
39', 🟨,
44', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Sanz I. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
58', Lete E. ↓, Gibelalde M. ↑,
66', Arroyo R. ↓, Lumbreras C. ↑,
66', Gonzalez D. ↓, Pedroarena M. ↑,
69', Bujan E. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
69', Gibelalde M. ↓, Huestamendia P. ↑,
76', Echegoyen M. ↓, Santos U. ↑,
76', Garcia J. ↓, Garin X. ↑,
78', De Luis J. ↓, Izagirre Cestona A. ↑,
78', Perez A. ↓, Gift E. ↑,
90', Santos U. 🟨,
90+3', Garcia E. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 8)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao B won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Athletic Bilbao B is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao B won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:6. (average 1.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic Bilbao B won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.09.25	Real Avilés - Athletic Bilbao B	3:2 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
24.09.25	Manchester United U21 - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.09.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
07.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWT
- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.09.25	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Osasuna B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Real Avilés - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Osasuna B - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.03.25	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1
15.11.24	Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.04.23	Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B	1:0
27.11.22	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	3:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
15.02.20	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1
28.09.19	Athletic Bilbao B - Osasuna B	5:0
05.05.18	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	0:3

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