Match Info

Serie B - Round 29

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Martins F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.20	2.90	3.30
	2.25	2.92	3.25
	2.31	3.06	3.68
	2.25	3.03	3.46	Watch
	2.2	3	3.55
	2.21	2.95	3.47	Watch
	2.28	3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.38)	3 ↓ (3.05)	3.42 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
41.6%

Draw
31.1%

Botafogo SP
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

30.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

28.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Athletic Club - Botafogo SP Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Athletic (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 2. Douglas Pele 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi (C) 23. Enzo Santos 5. Felipe Negrucci 16. Joao Miguel 11. Max 17. Kauan Rodrigues 10. Kauan Lindes 20. Aponza W.	1. Victor Souza (G) 3. Ericson 13. Wallace 4. Vilar 31. Pedro Henrique 8. Everton Morelli 20. Yuri Felipe 6. Patrick Brey (C) 10. Rafael Gava 9. Hygor 7. Kelvin
Substitutes
22. Alexandre Pena 18. Assis 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 9. Gustavao 15. Jota 6. Marcelo Henrique 13. Philipe Sampaio 19. Pool J. 12. Tony (G) 21. Vera D. 14. Yago Santos	18. Arthur Caike 26. Felipe Vieira 34. Hebert 2. Jonathan 12. Jordan (G) 5. Leandro Maciel 28. Marco Antonio 29. Thiago Moraes 23. Wesley Santos 30. Ze Hugo
Coaches
Alex Souza	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Kauan Lindes ⚽, Max (A),
25', 1 - 1, Hygor ⚽, Pedro Henrique (A),
32', Yuri Felipe 🟨,
39', Hygor ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yuri Felipe ↓, Leandro Maciel ↑,
50', Leandro Maciel 🟨,
59', Wallace 🟨,
65', Max ↓, Bruninho ↑,
66', Felipe Negrucci ↓, Yago Santos ↑,
70', Wallace ↓, Jonathan ↑,
75', Joao Miguel 🟨,
78', Joao Miguel ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
78', Kauan Lindes ↓, Vera D. ↑,
80', Kelvin ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
80', Pedro Henrique ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
85', Aponza W. ↓, Gustavao ↑,
90+1', Vera D. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 10th and 16th).

Athletic has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Botafogo SP has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Athletic holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Athletic has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:1 (averaging 2.3:0.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Athletic against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.25%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.26	Juventude - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Cuiabá - Athletic Club	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	5:0 ✺
28.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWLL
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
14.09.26	Botafogo SP - Goiás	1:3 ✺
09.09.26	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
03.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Botafogo SP - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
25.08.26	Atlético Goianiense - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
25.05.26	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	1:2
14.09.25	Athletic Club - Botafogo SP	2:0
12.05.25	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	0:3

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