Match Info

Serie B - Round 26

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Athletic Club		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.00	2.57	Watch
	2.65	2.87	2.65
	2.63	3.00	2.75	Watch
	2.89	3.00	2.83
	2.67	2.99	2.82	Watch
	2.70	2.95	2.90
	2.81	3.01	2.63	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.3)	2.97 ↓ (3.15)	2.73 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
34.2%

Draw
31.5%

Vila Nova
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

29.6%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Club's form might have worsened.

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Club, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Athletic Club - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 22. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi (C) 23. Enzo Santos 5. Felipe Negrucci 21. Vera D. 14. Yago Santos 17. Kauan Rodrigues 11. Kauan Lindes 9. Carlinhos	1. Helton Leite (G) 22. Hayner 3. Tiago Pagnussat 13. Willian Formiga 16. Igor Carius 20. Nathan Camargo 8. Willian Maranhao 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 17. Everton Galdino 7. Andre Luis 99. Janderson
Substitutes
2. Alexandre Pena 20. Aponza W. 18. Assis 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 10. Gustavinho 15. Jota 6. Marcelo Henrique 13. Philipe Sampaio 19. Pool J. 12. Tony (G) 16. Yarlen	33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 9. Gustavo Puskas 21. Higor Meritao 4. Jonathan Costa 14. Rodrigo 11. Ryan
Coaches
Alex Souza	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Yago Santos ⚽, Kauan Rodrigues (A),
32', Andre Luis 🟨,
39', Nathan Camargo 🟨,
40', 2 - 0, Carlinhos ⚽,
42', Alex Souza 🟨,
45', 3 - 0, Vera D. ⚽, Carlinhos (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Nathan Camargo ↓, Dodo ↑,
46', Everton Galdino ↓, Ryan ↑,
46', Igor Carius ↓, Jonathan Costa ↑,
46', Yago Santos ↓, Jota ↑,
63', Kauan Lindes ↓, Assis ↑,
63', Carlinhos ↓, Aponza W. ↑,
64', Vera D. 🟨,
66', Vera D. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
72', Tiago Pagnussat 🟥,
74', 4 - 0, Aponza W. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
79', Yarlen 🟨,
82', Andre Luis ↓, Gustavo Puskas ↑,
86', Felipe Negrucci ↓, Philipe Sampaio ↑,
88', Aponza W. 🟨,
90+1', 5 - 0, Bruninho ⚽, Kauan Rodrigues (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In recent matches, Athletic has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vila Nova is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Athletic: Douglas Pele (Yellow Cards) Joao Miguel (Red Card) Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Injury) Zeca (Injury)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Dellatorre (Injury) Dudu (Yellow Cards) Joao Vieira (Yellow Cards) Rafa Silva (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Douglas Mendes (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.65%, but this team recently wins 7% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
28.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
20.08.26	Athletic Club - CRB Maceio	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
09.08.26	Athletic Club - Criciúma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLLWW
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.26	Vila Nova - Ceará	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	0:0 ✺
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
15.08.26	Atlético Goianiense - Vila Nova	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.05.26	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1
08.09.25	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1
06.05.25	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	0:1

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