Match Info

BRAZIL: MINEIRO - ROUND 8

Date: 2 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Filho D. (Bra)


	Athletic Club		Itabirito

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3.2	3.75
	2	3.3	3.6	Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.99
	1.93	3.36	3.82	Watch
	2	3.3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.82)	3.29 ↓ (3.45)	3.75 ↓ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
47.2%

Draw
28.1%

Itabirito
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

26.8%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

26.6%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Itabirito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabirito than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Athletic Club - Itabirito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lucas Passarelli (G) 6. Yuri 3. Danilo Cardoso 4. Edson Miranda 2. Douglas Pele 18. Wallisson 5. Diego Fumaca 11. Rafael Conceicao 9. Jonathas 7. Welinton Torrao 10. Robert Santos	1. Elias (G) 15. Bryan Garcia 2. Lucas Mota 23. Lucas Costa 4. Rayan Ribeiro 88. Claudinei 20. Fabricio Bigode 11. Bruno Menezes 7. Erick Salles 77. Johnatan Cardoso 99. Da Silva
Substitutes
27. Daniel Amorim 21. David Braga 14. Leo Cruz 17. Luciano 16. Luiz Henrique 20. Natan 22. Robinho 26. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 23. Thalisson 19. Wanderson 15. Weverton 13. Ynaia	14. Branquinho 98. Denis Germano 21. Felipe (G) 6. Gustavo Belusci 5. Gustavo Crecci 31. Junior Vernier (G) 9. Lucas Coelho 25. Lucas Ferron 26. Mateus Rodrigues 10. Rondinelly 39. Victor Ferreira
Coaches
Rodrigo Santana	Marcelo Caranhato

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Athletic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Athletic will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Copa do Brasil
27.02.24	Athletic Club - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
24.02.24	Uberlândia - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Athletic Club - Pouso Alegre	4:1 ✺
14.02.24	Villa Nova AC - Athletic Club	1:4 ✺
08.02.24	Athletic Club - Atlético Mineiro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWWL
- Itabirito FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
25.02.24	Itabirito - Patrocinense	2:2 ✺
17.02.24	Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro	0:2 ✺
14.02.24	Uberlândia - Itabirito	1:2 ✺
08.02.24	Pouso Alegre - Itabirito	2:0 ✺
03.02.24	Itabirito - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLWLT

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