Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Willers Lorenzatto L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Athletic Club		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.82	3.8	Watch
	2.05	2.95	3.60
	2.2	2.92	3.5	Watch
	2.32	3	3.89
	2.18	2.99	3.71	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.85
	2.26	2.86	3.61	Watch
	2.2	2.95	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.1)	2.92 ↓ (3.15)	3.68 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
42.6%

Draw
32%

São Bernardo
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

29.5%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

25.4%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	54.5%	9.1%

Athletic Club - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). São Bernardo will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - São Bernardo (3.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 22. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi (C) 23. Enzo Santos 16. Joao Miguel 11. Max 8. Cabezas G. 5. Ian Luccas 17. Kauan Rodrigues 9. Carlinhos	1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 35. Jemerson 97. Augusto 6. Para 26. Dudu Miraima 8. Foguinho (C) 14. Lucas Lima 7. Lucas Rian 9. Felipe Garcia 27. Echapora
Substitutes
20. Aponza W. 2. Douglas Pele 6. Felipe Negrucci 13. Felipe Vieira 12. Glauco (G) 10. Gustavinho 15. Jota 14. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 19. Pool J. 21. Vera D. 7. Yarlen	89. Daniel Amorim 37. Davi D. 10. Fabricio Daniel 3. Helder Maciel 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 70. Lucas Reis 90. Luizao 77. Marcao Silva 33. Mario Sergio 29. Pedrinho
Coaches
Alex Souza	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Max ⚽, Belezi (A),
27', 1 - 1, Lucas Rian ⚽, Lucas Lima (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Carlinhos ↓, Vera D. ↑,
52', Cabezas G. ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
57', Dudu Miraima 🟨,
61', Ian Luccas ↓, Aponza W. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Felipe Negrucci ⚽, Diogo Batista (A),
65', Para ↓, Mario Sergio ↑,
65', Dudu Miraima ↓, Hyoran ↑,
65', Echapora ↓, Davi D. ↑,
77', Max ↓, Yarlen ↑,
79', Lucas Lima ↓, Daniel Amorim ↑,
82', Lucas Rian ↓, Fabricio Daniel ↑,
87', Rodrigo Ferreira 🟨,
89', Felipe Garcia 🟨,
90+1', Aponza W. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 9).

Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Bernardo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Athletic might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Athletic: Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Inactive) Zeca (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in São Bernardo: Lucas Fernandes (Injury) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Pedro Vitor (Inactive) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
18.07.26	Atlético Goianiense - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
13.07.26	Ceará - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
07.07.26	Athletic Club - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Londrina - Athletic Club	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTLWL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
17.07.26	São Bernardo - Avaí	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	São Bernardo - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
06.07.26	Vila Nova - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	São Bernardo - Juventude	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
29.06.24	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	1:4

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