Match Info

Serie B - Round 33

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	16:00	Disney+


	Juventude		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.50	7.00	Watch
	1.55	3.60	5.75
	1.60	3.60	6.10	Watch
	1.60	3.75	7.01
	1.54	3.84	6.4	Watch
	1.56	3.65	6.90
	1.57	3.49	6.97	Watch
	1.56	3.65	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.67)	3.64 ↑ (3.6)	6.52 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
59.9%

Draw
25.8%

São Bernardo
14.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.8%

25.9%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

26.3%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Juventude - São Bernardo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 47. Marcos Paulo 2. Rai Ramos 75. Rai Silva 29. Gabriel Pires 16. Diogo Barbosa 11. Fabio Lima 25. Alisson Safira 10. MP	1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 35. Jemerson (C) 77. Marcao Silva 97. Augusto 6. Para 31. Lucas Fernandes 14. Lucas Lima 26. Dudu Miraima 29. Pedrinho 9. Felipe Garcia
Substitutes
9. Alan Kardec 17. Castro M. 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 70. Juan Christian 5. Luan Martins 72. Lucas Alves 8. Lucas Mineiro 26. Ly I. 22. Nathan Santos 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 3. Titi 6. Wadson	30. Breninho 44. Caio Garcez 37. Davi D. 27. Echapora 8. Foguinho 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 16. Jota 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 7. Lucas Rian 11. Pedro Vitor 17. Romisson
Coaches
Mauricio Barbieri	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Rodrigo Sam ⚽, Rai Silva (A),
31', Alex Alves 🟨,
35', Jemerson 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Felipe Garcia (Penalty Awarded),
45+6', Mauricio Barbieri 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fabio Lima ↓, Castro M. ↑,
46', Marcos Paulo 🟨,
49', 1 - 2, Lucas Fernandes ⚽, Felipe Garcia (A),
61', Rai Ramos ↓, Nathan Santos ↑,
61', Marcos Paulo ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
63', Lucas Lima 🟨,
65', Felipe Garcia ↓, Pedro Vitor ↑,
65', Pedrinho ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Rai Silva ⚽, MP (A),
76', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Hyoran ↑,
78', MP ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
83', Gabriel Pires ↓, Luan Martins ↑,
86', Para ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
86', Lucas Lima ↓, Foguinho ↑,
90+3', Rodrigo Ferreira 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Serie A Betano and 12th).

In recent outings, Juventude has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

São Bernardo shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

São Bernardo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Juventude enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Juventude: Aderlan (Yellow Cards) Allanzinho (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for São Bernardo: Caio Garcez (Muscle Injury) Fabricio Daniel (Yellow Cards) Luizao (Yellow Cards) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for São Bernardo: Daniel Amorim (Inactive).

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Juventude has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Juventude	35	18	10	7	45:23	22	64
11	Sao Bernardo	35	13	10	12	49:39	10	49

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
06.10.26	Ponte Preta - Juventude	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Juventude - Operário Ferroviario	3:0 ✺
28.09.26	América Mineiro - Juventude	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Sport Recife - Juventude	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Juventude - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWLL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
06.10.26	Sport Recife - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
02.10.26	São Bernardo - CRB Maceio	3:1 ✺
25.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
18.09.26	São Bernardo - Atlético Goianiense	1:0 ✺
14.09.26	América Mineiro - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.06.26	São Bernardo - Juventude	0:1

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