Match Info

Paranaense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Athletico Paranaense		Londrina

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	3.9
	1.9	3.25	4.05	Watch
	1.54	3.5	4.59
	1.86	3.3	4.37	Watch
	1.85	2.9	3.9
	1.97	3.21	4.03	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.57)	3.27 ↓ (3.55)	4.31 ↓ (5.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
50.7%

Draw
28%

Londrina
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

25.7%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

23.9%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletico Paranaense's form might have worsened.

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Londrina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Athletico Paranaense - Londrina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mycael (G) 33. Aguirre F. (C) 48. Bruninho 47. Chiqueti 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 70. Renan Peixoto	30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 5. Andre Luiz 9. Bruno Santos 11. Iago Teles 32. Joao Tavares 33. Kevyn 8. Lucas Marques 6. Mauricio Junior 7. Vitinho 4. Wallace (C) 3. Yago Lincoln
Substitutes
4. Arthur Dias 29. Benavidez G. 26. Claudinho 63. Diogo Riquelme 16. Jadson 20. Julimar 21. Leozinho 14. Luiz Gustavo 7. Mendoza S. 23. Santos (G) 9. Viveros K. 10. Zapelli B.	13. Andre Dhominique 53. Chumbinho 20. Fabiano 15. Gabriel Lacerda 70. Gilberto 34. Heron 77. Juninho 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 18. Paulinho Moccelin 55. Rafael Monteiro 29. Vitor Jacare
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Bruno Santos ⚽,
11', Chiqueti 🟨,
37', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
41', Vitinho ↓, Paulinho Moccelin ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Renan Peixoto ↓, Viveros K. ↑,
46', Bruninho ↓, Leozinho ↑,
46', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
64', Joao Cruz (Penalty Awarded),
66', Felipinho ↓, Julimar ↑,
67', Bruno Santos ↓, Gilberto ↑,
67', Joao Tavares ↓, Heron ↑,
84', Mauricio Junior ↓, Andre Dhominique ↑,
84', Iago Teles ↓, Vitor Jacare ↑,
84', Leo Derik ↓, Mendoza S. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-2. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Londrina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 35:18. (average 1.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:5. (average 2.4:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.26	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
07.02.26	Foz do Iguaçu - Athletico Paranaense	1:3 ✺
03.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Foz do Iguaçu	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTWWW
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.26	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Londrina - São-Joseense	2:1 penalties ✺
01.02.26	São-Joseense - Londrina	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Londrina - Cianorte	0:0 ✺
20.01.26	Andraus - Londrina	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.26	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	2:2
15.02.25	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
10.03.24	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	6:0
02.03.24	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
10.02.24	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
26.02.23	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
20.03.22	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	3:1 penalties

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