Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Canada	beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN


	Atlético Nacional		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.9	4.5
	1.95	3.3	3.8
	1.75	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.76	3.71	4.88
	1.77	3.68	4.72
	1.95	3.2	3.8	Watch
	1.76	3.69	4.92	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.13)	3.59 ↑ (3.29)	4.52 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
52.6%

Draw
26.4%

Bahia
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

28.7%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

29.4%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bahia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bahia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Atlético Nacional - Bahia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Atlético Nacional (2.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Nacional will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Castillo H. (G) 6. Roman A. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 21. Campuzano J. 8. Uribe M. 18. Hinestroza M. 10. Cardona E. (C) 11. Arce B. 19. Viveros K.	22. Marcos Felipe (G) 14. Erick 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 8. Cauly 16. Erick Pulga 9. Rodriguez L.
Substitutes
27. Asprilla D. 33. Caicedo R. 20. Castro J. 28. Garcia S. 32. Guzman S. 25. Marquinez L. (G) 9. Morelos A. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 26. Rivero E. 17. Salazar A. 29. Sarmiento A. 31. Torres Patino J. P.	1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 83. Fred Lippert 3. Gabriel Xavier 25. Iago Borduchi 71. Kaua Davi 37. Kayky 15. Michel Araujo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 52. Ruan Pablo 77. Tiago 12. Willian Jose
Coaches
Gandolfi J.	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Uribe M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Viveros K. ⚽, Arce B. (A),
68', Rodriguez L. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
68', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
77', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
77', Cauly ↓, Kayky ↑,
80', Viveros K. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
81', Cardona E. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
87', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
88', Arce B. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
90+4', Sarmiento A. 🟨,
90+4', Hinestroza M. 🟨,
90+6', Hinestroza M. ↓, Rivero E. ↑,

Preview

Atlético Nacional is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bahia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético Nacional is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Atlético Nacional: Zapata J. (Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Arias S. (Muscle Injury) Gilberto (Inactive) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Ronaldo Strada (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
11.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Llaneros SA	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Internacional RS	3:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
04.05.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	1:1 ✺
29.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportivo Pasto	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.25	Bahia - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWTWL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.25	Bahia - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Paysandu - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Palmeiras - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
24.04.25	Bahia - Atlético Nacional	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
24.10.13	Bahia - Atlético Nacional	1:1 penalties
26.09.13	Atlético Nacional - Bahia	1:0

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