Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 18

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Bahia		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.75	3.8	Watch
	1.82	3.7	3.95	Watch
	1.93	3.75	4.04
	1.96	3.74	3.64	Watch
	1.85	3.4	3.8
	1.93	3.66	4.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.97)	3.67 ↑ (3.6)	3.88 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
49.9%

Draw
25.7%

Botafogo RJ
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

26.4%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

28.7%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	15.4%	23.1%

Bahia - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Botafogo will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 66. Ze Guilherme 14. Erick 8. Caio Alexandre 11. Rodrigo 16. Erick Pulga 12. Willian Jose (C) 99. Olivera C.	22. Neto (G) 4. Ponte M. 5. Ferraresi N. 34. Justino G. 13. Alex Telles (C) 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 75. Huguinho 6. Medina C. 10. Montoro A. 19. Arthur Cabral 59. Kauan Toledo
Substitutes
7. Ademir 90. Caio Suassuna 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 3. Gabriel Xavier 31. Gomez R. 6. Jean Lucas 4. Kanu 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 23. Sanabria M. 61. Victor (G)	26. Anthony 14. Barrera J. 27. Caio Roque 45. Caio Valle 88. Edenilson 11. Matheus Martins 28. Newton 9. Ramos C. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 23. Rodriguez S. 2. Vitinho 3. Ythallo
Coaches
Mucke R.	Carvalho F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Huguinho ⚽,
21', Montoro A. 🟨,
25', Olivera C. ↓, Ademir ↑,
37', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
42', Ademir 🟨,
43', Medina C. 🟨,
44', Erick 🟨,
45+2', Neto 🟥,
45+4', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Raul Steffens ↑,
45+10', Huguinho 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Caio Alexandre ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
46', Erick Pulga ↓, Everaldo ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Ferraresi N. (Own goal),
65', Ze Guilherme ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
74', Medina C. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
74', Montoro A. ↓, Newton ↑,
75', Kauan Toledo ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
84', Newton 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 1, David Duarte ⚽, Ademir (A),
90+3', David Duarte 🟨,
90+3', Justino G. ↓, Ramos C. ↑,
90+4', Willian Jose ↓, Marcos Victor ↑,
90+7', Willian Jose 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.

Bahia is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Botafogo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Botafogo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bahia is the team to beat.

There will not play in Bahia: Luciano Juba (Injury) Nicolas Acevedo (Yellow Cards) Ronaldo Strada (Shoulder Injury) Ruan Pablo (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Allan (Muscle Injury) Bastos (Injury) Correa J. (Yellow Cards) Junior Santos (Foot Injury) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury) Nathan Fernandes (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Leo Vieira (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:24. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 48.22%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.26	Coritiba - Bahia	3:2 ✺
17.05.26	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Remo - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LTLLT
- Botafogo RJ
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Caracas - Botafogo RJ	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.05.26	Independiente Petroleros - Botafogo RJ	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Chapecoense - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	2:1
03.05.25	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0
25.08.24	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	0:0
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0
30.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	1:2
27.08.23	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	3:0

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