Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Bahia		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	6	Watch
	1.55	4	5.75
	1.55	4.15	5.45	Watch
	1.6	4.09	5.69
	1.59	4.12	5.62	Watch
	1.5	3.9	6	Watch
	1.53	4.32	5.98	Watch
	1.55	4.15	5.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.53)	4.13 ↓ (4.15)	5.74 ↓ (6.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
60.8%

Draw
22.8%

Nacional Montevideo
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.6%

22.7%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

22%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Bahia - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 50%). Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 14. Erick 33. David Duarte 21. Sidney Duarte 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 8. Cauly 12. Willian Jose 16. Erick Pulga	12. Mejia L. (G) 19. Morales L. 15. Calione P. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 11. Baez Corradi G. 6. Boggio L. 8. Oliva C. 18. Recoba J. 16. Villalba Jaume L. M. 7. Lopez N.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 83. Fred Lippert 3. Gabriel Xavier 25. Iago Borduchi 37. Kayky 15. Michel Araujo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 9. Rodriguez L. 77. Tiago	13. Ancheta E. 26. Arady B. 17. Eduardo Vargas 76. Herazo D. 80. Otero R. 10. Pereyra M. 9. Petit G. 2. Ramos N. 77. Rodriguez N. 5. Rodriguez Y. 27. Romero D. 25. Suarez I. (G)
Coaches
Mucke R.	Peirano P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
47', 1 - 0, Jean Lucas ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
57', 1 - 1, Morales L. ⚽, Millan J. (A),
61', Recoba J. ↓, Romero D. ↑,
64', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Ademir ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Lopez N. ⚽, Villalba Jaume L. M. (A),
76', Morales L. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
82', Oliva C. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
84', Jean Lucas ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
84', Erick ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
86', 1 - 3, Millan J. ⚽, Villalba Jaume L. M. (A),
90', Caio Alexandre ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
90', Erick Pulga ↓, Kayky ↑,

Preview

Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bahia is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Bahia: Arias S. (Inactive) Gilberto (Inactive) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Ronaldo Strada (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Nacional: Carneiro G. (Knee Injury) Mereles E. (Injury)

We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bahia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Paysandu - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Palmeiras - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.25	Bahia - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 WWWWW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
26.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Miramar Misiones - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
13.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Bahia	0:1

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