Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 29

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nubank Parque (Sao Paulo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	21:30	Flow Eventos
Bosnia And Herzegovina	02:30	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	21:30	Globoplay, NSC TV, Premiere
Ecuador	19:30	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	03:30	Sport 2
Kosovo	02:30	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	18:30	Azteca Deportes
North Central America	—	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	02:30	Arena Premium 3
Paraguay	21:30	Flow Eventos
Portugal	01:30	Canal 11
Russia	03:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 3
United Kingdom	01:30	Premier Sports 2
Uruguay	21:30	Flow
Usa	20:30	Fanatiz


	Palmeiras		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.20	5.75	Watch
	1.55	4.40	5.50
	1.52	4.40	5.30	Watch
	1.60	4.42	5.82
	1.59	4.39	5.3	Watch
	1.57	4.30	5.60
	1.56	4.23	6.09	Watch
	1.55	4.30	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.55)	4.33 ↑ (4.26)	5.57 ↑ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
61%

Draw
22%

Bahia
17.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.6%

22%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

21.2%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Palmeiras - Bahia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Palmeiras (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 26. Murilo 15. Gomez G. (C) 2. Barboza A. 12. Khellven 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 56. Arthur Gabriel 42. Lopez J. 30. Lucas Evangelista 9. Vitor Roque	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 4. Kanu 46. Luciano Juba 11. Rodrigo 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 6. Jean Lucas 99. Olivera C. 9. Veliz A. 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
11. Arias J. 3. Bruno Fuchs 37. Fabiano 7. Felipe Anderson 4. Giay A. 48. Larson 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 22. Piquerez J. 19. Sosa R.	7. Ademir 8. Caio Alexandre 14. Erick 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 17. Herrera G. (G) 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 3. Moreno M. 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Barboza A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
65', Khellven 🟨,
65', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
66', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
66', Rodrigo ↓, Erick ↑,
69', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
69', Lopez J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
82', Veliz A. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
82', Olivera C. ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
87', Jean Lucas 🟨,
88', Andreas Pereira ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Palmeiras carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Palmeiras in today's match, at odds of 1.61.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras has recorded 10 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:16 (averaging 1.5:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Palmeiras against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:7 goals (averaging 1.9:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56:22	34	69
7	Bahia	32	13	11	8	45:40	5	50

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 39.01%

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 60.65%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.26	Grêmio - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	LDU Quito - Palmeiras	3:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Palmeiras - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWT
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Bahia - Remo	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Bahia - Internacional RS	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2
28.09.25	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:0
27.04.25	Palmeiras - Bahia	0:1
20.11.24	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2
07.07.24	Palmeiras - Bahia	2:0
28.10.23	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0
21.06.23	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:0

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