Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 29

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Nubank Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	Flow Eventos
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	Globoplay, NSC TV, Premiere
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Palmeiras		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.90	5.25	Watch
	1.62	4.10	5.25
	1.54	4.20	5.40
	1.66	4.25	5.15
	1.67	4.15	4.76	Watch
	1.62	4.15	5.05
	1.62	4.23	5.31	Watch
	1.61	4.10	4.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.55)	4.14 ↓ (4.26)	5.13 ↓ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
58.7%

Draw
22.9%

Bahia
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

22%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

21.2%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Palmeiras - Bahia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Palmeiras (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Palmeiras carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Palmeiras in today's match, at odds of 1.61.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras has recorded 10 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:16 (averaging 1.5:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Palmeiras against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:7 goals (averaging 1.9:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47:21	26	57
6	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43:35	8	46

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 60.65%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.26	Grêmio - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	LDU Quito - Palmeiras	3:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Palmeiras - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWT
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Bahia - Remo	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Bahia - Internacional RS	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2
28.09.25	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:0
27.04.25	Palmeiras - Bahia	0:1
20.11.24	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2
07.07.24	Palmeiras - Bahia	2:0
28.10.23	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0
21.06.23	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:0

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