Match Info

Date: 14 April 2021, Wednesday


	Atlético Nacional		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	4	Watch
	1.8	3.7	4.1
	1.8	3.75	4	Watch
	1.76	3.55	4
	1.8	3.78	4.38
	1.78	3.6	4.6	Watch
	1.79	3.54	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.71)	3.63 ↑ (3.6)	4.21 ↓ (4.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
52.2%

Draw
25.6%

Libertad Asuncion
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

25.9%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

15.4%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-19.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Libertad Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	12.1%	15.2%

Atlético Nacional - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 24 - 72.7%). Libertad will win (votes: 5 - 15.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Nacional: 57.5% – 87.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

Atlético Nacional is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Libertad could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Atlético Nacional have a series of guest games.

Recently Libertad have a series of home games.

In this match Atlético Nacional is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
10.04.21	Deportivo Cali - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.21	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.04.21	Atlético Nacional - Envigado	3:0 ✺
30.03.21	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	2:1 ✺
27.03.21	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLT
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.04.21	Libertad Asuncion - Guaireña	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.21	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.04.21	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
28.03.21	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
22.03.21	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
07.04.21	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0
28.02.19	Atlético Nacional - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 penalties
21.02.19	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0
21.04.15	Atlético Nacional - Libertad Asuncion	4:0
19.02.15	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	2:2

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