Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportes Tolima		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3	Watch
	2.52	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.63	3.2	3.07
	2.53	3.07	2.92
	2.5	2.9	2.8
	2.7	3.1	2.96	Watch
	2.55	3.35	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.55)	3.09 ↓ (3.35)	2.91 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
36.9%

Draw
30.6%

Atlético Nacional
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

27.9%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

26.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 28. Lopez E. 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. (C) 17. Arrieta C. 32. Guzman S. 80. Rovira B. 24. Parra Osorio A. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 18. Florez K. 9. Sandoval L.	1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 28. Garcia S. 16. Tesillo W. 4. Haydar C. 21. Campuzano J. 8. Uribe M. 13. Rodriguez N. 19. Rengifo J. 18. Bello E. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 20. Hernandez J. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 33. Mosquera J. 15. Nieto J. 29. Sanchez N. 6. Trujillo C. 8. Valencia E.	17. Arango C. 10. Cardona E. 15. Castillo H. (G) 14. Marin F. 7. Moreno M. 29. Sarmiento A. 5. Uribe C. 33. Velasquez S. 80. Zapata J.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Arias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Garcia S. 🟨,
30', Angulo A. 🟨,
35', Angulo A. 🟥,
37', Lopez E. 🟨,
39', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Trujillo C. ↑,
42', Rovira B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Garcia S. ↓, Velasquez S. ↑,
58', 0 - 1, Morelos A. ⚽, Bello E. (A),
61', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
65', Uribe M. ↓, Zapata J. ↑,
65', Bello E. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
74', Campuzano J. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
74', Morelos A. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
78', Sandoval L. ↓, Sanchez N. ↑,
78', Florez K. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
90+6', Arango C. 🟥,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 1.

Deportes Tolima is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Atlético Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportes Tolima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Deportes Tolima has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:25. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.4:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atl. Nacional	11	7	2	2	21:10	11	23
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
13.05.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Cali	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWTW
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
12.05.26	Atlético Nacional - Inter Bogotá	7:1 ✺
09.05.26	Inter Bogotá - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Pereira - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
01.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:0
02.08.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	0:0
19.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportes Tolima	4:3
22.12.24	Atlético Nacional - Deportes Tolima	2:0
18.12.24	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:1
14.11.24	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:0
27.04.24	Atlético Nacional - Deportes Tolima	3:1

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