Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Libertad Asuncion		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.2	2.7	Watch
	2.37	3.20	2.55
	2.4	3.15	2.72	Watch
	2.56	3.4	2.87
	2.49	3.36	2.75	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.8
	2.5	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.35	3.15	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.75)	3.23 ↓ (3.35)	2.73 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
37.8%

Draw
28.5%

Olimpia Asuncion
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

28.1%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

28%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Olimpia Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	71.4%	0%

Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 23. Freire N. 3. Rojas R. 4. Gimenez N. 5. Flores G. 24. Villalba R. 8. Carrizo F. 6. Campuzano A. (C) 21. Sanabria L. 9. Aguilar G. 26. Ramirez I.	12. Lentinelly S. (G) 27. Caceres R. 22. Vera J. 15. Gamarra M. 30. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 5. Alfaro J. F. 6. Ortiz R. (C) 35. Alfonso F. 7. Cardozo F. 9. Avalos G. 37. Benitez R.
Substitutes
13. Bogarin J. 20. Fernandez H. 28. Fernandez M. 31. Fernandez T. 19. Franco I. 14. Fretes A. 33. Martinez C. 32. Nequecaur L. 29. Rojas V. (G) 11. Vera E. 30. Vera O. R. 22. Villalba P.	20. Delmas E. 11. Ferreira S. 19. Lezcano R. 23. Matus E. 4. Payne T. 18. Quintana S. 17. Redes R. 31. Romero B. 26. Sanchez R. 34. Sandoval H. 14. Vargas G. 13. Verza Martinez L. A. (G)
Coaches
Valdez N.	Sanchez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Campuzano A. 🟥,
33', 0 - 1, Alfonso F. ⚽,
45+2', Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Alfonso F. ↓, Lezcano R. ↑,
46', Rodriguez Armoa A. F. ↓, Matus E. ↑,
46', Villalba R. ↓, Vera E. ↑,
65', Ramirez I. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
65', Carrizo F. ↓, Martinez C. ↑,
65', Benitez R. ↓, Delmas E. ↑,
66', Gamarra M. 🟨,
67', Sanabria L. ↓, Fernandez H. ↑,
67', Aguilar G. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
69', Delmas E. 🟨,
75', Martinez C. 🟨,
80', Alfaro J. F. ↓, Quintana S. ↑,
85', Caceres R. ↓, Payne T. ↑,
90+1', Franco I. 🟨,
90+1', Ortiz R. 🟨,
90+1', Cardozo F. 🟨,
90+6', Payne T. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 2.

Libertad has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Olimpia is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Olimpia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Libertad has recorded 11 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:20 (averaging 1.6:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Libertad against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 19:9 goals (averaging 1.9:0.9 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	13	8	2	3	22:10	12	26
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Copa Paraguay
23.09.26	Fernando de la Mora - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	4:2 ✺
02.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTWWL
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
26.07.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
25.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	3:2
25.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0
01.11.25	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:2
17.08.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:0
21.05.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:1
15.03.25	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1

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