Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 9 - Round 27

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday


	Atlético Porcuna		Real Jaén

	1	X	2
	7.4	4.5	1.35
	6.13	5.23	1.36	Watch
	6.21	4.92	1.42
	7.4	4.5	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.79 ↑ (5.71)	4.79 ↑ (3.98)	1.37 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Porcuna
13.6%

Draw
19.2%

Real Jaén
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

22.9%

61.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

22.5%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Porcuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Real Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Jaén's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Porcuna than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Atlético Porcuna - Real Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Camara J. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Recent matches Atlético Porcuna is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jaén is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atlético Porcuna could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Jaén is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Porcuna won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:9 (average 0.8:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Porcuna won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0 (average 0.7:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Porcuna
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
02.03.25	Malaga B - Atlético Porcuna	6:0 ✺
23.02.25	Atlético Porcuna - Torreperogil	2:3 ✺
16.02.25	Málaga Juniors - Atlético Porcuna	0:1 ✺
02.02.25	El Palo - Atlético Porcuna	2:2 ✺
26.01.25	Atlético Porcuna - Huétor Tájar	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWTW
- Real Jaén
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
16.03.25	Real Jaén - Motril	1:3 ✺
09.03.25	Torre Del Mar - Real Jaén	1:2 ✺
02.03.25	Real Jaén - El Ejido	5:1 ✺
23.02.25	Huétor Vega - Real Jaén	2:2 ✺
16.02.25	Real Jaén - Arenas Armilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
10.11.24	Real Jaén - Atlético Porcuna	2:1
05.02.23	Real Jaén - Atlético Porcuna	7:1
09.10.22	Atlético Porcuna - Real Jaén	2:0
23.01.22	Atlético Porcuna - Real Jaén	0:0
27.12.20	Atlético Porcuna - Real Jaén	0:0

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