Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni (Asunción)

Referee: Colman A. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Tembetary		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.7	1.57	Watch
	5.5	3.75	1.55	Watch
	5.72	4.05	1.57
	3.30	2.13	3.35	Watch
	5.79	3.87	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (4.9)	3.5 ↓ (3.64)	1.92 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Tembetary
19.2%

Draw
28.6%

Libertad Asuncion
52.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

25.5%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.1%

24.3%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Tembetary has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Tembetary than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Libertad Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Atlético Tembetary - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Tembetary (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Libertad Asuncion will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Libertad Asuncion will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tembetary (votes: 2 - 40%). Libertad (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Canteros T. (G) 22. Barrios V. 5. Marotta N. 3. Olmedo S. 17. Alonso W. 14. Esteche J. F. 18. Rojas R. 6. Colman D. 10. Candia W. 40. Zarate D. 11. Charpentier P.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 3. Rojas R. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 17. Espinoza M. 26. Caballero H. 31. Fernandez T. 28. Fernandez M. 30. Acuna O. 20. Fernandez H. 7. Cardozo O.
Substitutes
26. Adorno P. 12. Chena J. (G) 30. Cristaldo A. 8. Ferreira E. 23. Gudino G. 13. Izquierdo R. 24. Ortiz I. 37. Pereira B. 7. Perez E. 27. Rios R. 25. Silva C. 36. Toledo J.	11. Aguilar G. 13. Bogarin J. 6. Campuzano A. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 18. Franco I. 27. Jacquet M. 22. Martinez H. 19. Recalde J. 39. Rodis S. 21. Sanabria L. 1. Silva M. (G) 35. Troche A.
Coaches
Escobar L.	Guinazu P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Caballero H. 🟥,
15', 1 - 0, Candia W. ⚽, Esteche J. F. (A),
17', Cardozo O. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
38', Gimenez N. 🟨,
44', Rojas R. ↓, Rios R. ↑,
45', 1 - 1, Fernandez H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fernandez M. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
56', Esteche J. F. ↓, Gudino G. ↑,
56', Zarate D. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
74', Rojas R. ↓, Troche A. ↑,
78', Candia W. ↓, Ortiz I. ↑,
78', Alonso W. ↓, Cristaldo A. ↑,
80', Espinoza M. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
80', Acuna O. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
81', Colman D. 🟥,
90+2', 2 - 1, Charpentier P. ⚽, Cristaldo A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 and 9).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Tembetary may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tembetary has had a series of away games.

In this match, Libertad is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tembetary won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tembetary won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Tembetary
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Atlético Tembetary	1:0 ✺
29.09.25	Atlético Tembetary - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Copa Paraguay
24.09.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Atlético Tembetary	2:3 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.09.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Atlético Tembetary	3:1 ✺
17.09.25	Cerro Porteño - Atlético Tembetary	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 LLWLT
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	0:0 ✺
Copa Paraguay
01.10.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	2:3 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
27.09.25	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:1 ✺
21.09.25	Libertad Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
31.07.25	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Tembetary	3:1
04.05.25	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Tembetary	0:0
22.02.25	Atlético Tembetary - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
Copa Paraguay
30.11.21	Atlético Tembetary - Libertad Asuncion	0:2
15.08.19	Atlético Tembetary - Libertad Asuncion	1:2

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