Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 21

Date: 14 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Libertad Asuncion		2 de Mayo

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.3	4.1	Watch
	1.78	3.35	4.35	Watch
	1.79	3.5	4.51
	1.79	3.51	4.41	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.4
	1.79	3.51	4.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.78)	3.43 ↓ (3.48)	4.36 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
52%

Draw
26.9%

2 de Mayo
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

26.8%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

26.2%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

2 de Mayo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 2 de Mayo than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Libertad Asuncion - 2 de Mayo Predictions

Users Predictions: Libertad Asuncion will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 31. Fernandez T. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 8. Carrizo F. 6. Campuzano A. 21. Sanabria L. 14. Fretes A. 10. Melgarejo L. (C) 11. Aguilar G.	1. Martinez A. (G) 4. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 21. Sosa P. (C) 5. Saiz C. 19. Castro C. 24. Romero O. 34. Fernandez A. 18. Acosta M. 30. Farina A. 26. Fretes S. D. 9. Ruiz Diaz R.
Substitutes
13. Bogarin J. 26. Caballero H. 38. Diaz E. 28. Fernandez M. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 33. Martinez C. 27. Molinas A. 19. Recalde J. 7. Rojas M. 30. Vera O. R. 34. Villalba E. 23. Villalba P.	27. Acosta D. 2. Barreto M. 8. Colman O. 11. Coronel U. 15. Davalos Valdez V. 37. Delgadillo L. 17. Delvalle P. 16. Espinola A. 10. Gomez A. 3. Ibarrola W. 33. Trinanes F. 28. Urquiza M. (G)
Coaches
Samudio J.	Ledesma E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Saiz C. 🟨,
43', Melgarejo L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fernandez A. ↓, Delgadillo L. ↑,
63', Ruiz Diaz R. ↓, Acosta D. ↑,
63', Fretes S. D. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
64', Carrizo F. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
64', Fretes A. ↓, Villalba P. ↑,
64', Ramirez I. ↓, Villalba E. ↑,
65', Villalba P. 🟨,
67', Sosa P. 🟨,
73', Sanabria L. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
77', Aguilar G. ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
78', Delgadillo L. ↓, Delvalle P. ↑,
81', Viera D. 🟨,
88', Acosta M. ↓, Coronel U. ↑,
90+4', Recalde J. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

2 de Mayo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Libertad is the team to beat.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
3	2 de Mayo	13	7	4	2	16:13	3	25

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 52.44%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
10.05.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.05.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWLW
- CS 2 de Mayo
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.05.26	2 de Mayo - Rubio Ñu	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Sportivo Trinidense - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	2 de Mayo - Guaraní Asuncion	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Deportivo Recoleta - 2 de Mayo	5:0 ✺
10.04.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
13.03.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2
21.09.25	Libertad Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	0:1
11.07.25	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:0
01.06.25	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
28.03.25	Libertad Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	1:1
03.11.24	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	2:0
25.08.24	Libertad Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	2:0

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