Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 13

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Monumental (Rafaela)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Atlético de Rafaela		Gimnasia y Tiro

	1	X	2
	2.01	3	4	Watch
	2.37	2.75	3.2
	2.05	2.88	3.95	Watch
	2.09	3.09	4.48
	2.14	3.06	3.71	Watch
	2	2.9	4
	2.06	3.01	4.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.42)	2.96 ↑ (2.7)	3.91 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético de Rafaela
44.5%

Draw
31.6%

Gimnasia y Tiro
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

33.9%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

31.9%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético de Rafaela's performance.

Gimnasia y Tiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético de Rafaela that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gimnasia y Tiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30%	20%

Atlético de Rafaela - Gimnasia y Tiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Atlético Rafaela will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Gimnasia y Tiro will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Rafaela: 19% – 81%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Gimnasia y Tiro (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimnasia y Tiro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergia M. (G) 4. Flores L. 2. Fernandez G. 6. Ponce F. 3. Wuattier E. 8. Cainelli N. 5. Soloa F. 10. Obando A. 7. Moreno M. 9. Albertengo L. 11. Leineker C.	1. Papaleo J. (G) 4. Oviedo J. C. 2. Guanini M. 6. Tallura A. 3. Villarreal R. 8. Sivetti F. 5. Birge M. (C) 10. Rinaldi N. 11. Montoya W. 7. Rocca J. 9. Contin N.
Substitutes
17. Fernandez M. 12. Martinez R. (G) 19. Pardo M. 16. Pepino E. 20. Protti I. 18. Quiroga M. 15. Ramirez R. 14. Ramos N. 13. Solveyra A.	18. Banega T. 17. Borquez T. 16. Capano J. 12. Cosentino F. (G) 15. Gordillo J. 14. Montoya L. 19. Rodriguez P. A. 13. Soto G. 20. Turletti J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Birge M. ↓, Banega T. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Obando A. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
52', Banega T. 🟨,
54', Moreno M. 🟨,
59', Leineker C. ↓, Quiroga M. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Moreno M. ⚽,
77', Albertengo L. ↓, Pardo M. ↑,
83', Rinaldi N. ↓, Turletti J. ↑,
84', Oviedo J. C. ↓, Montoya L. ↑,
89', Cainelli N. ↓, Solveyra A. ↑,
90+5', Pardo M. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).

Atlético Rafaela has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gimnasia y Tiro's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético Rafaela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético Rafaela will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Atlético Rafaela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético Rafaela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético de Rafaela - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.94%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Gimnasia y Tiro - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.17%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.05.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Atlético de Rafaela	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Gimnasia Jujuy	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Agropecuario Argentino	4:1 ✺
13.04.26	Tristán Suárez - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Güemes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWTL
- Gimnasia y Tiro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.05.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Agropecuario Argentino	2:3 ✺
Copa Argentina
30.04.26	Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Tristán Suárez - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
15.04.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.07.24	Atlético de Rafaela - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0
18.02.24	Gimnasia y Tiro - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0

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