Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Agustín "Coruco" Díaz (Zacatepec)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Hi! Sports


	Atlante		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.6	4.6
	1.6	3.75	5.15
	1.55	4.08	6.11
	1.67	3.75	5.03	Watch
	1.53	3.6	5.75
	1.56	3.97	5.7	Watch
	1.55	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.53)	3.79 ↓ (4.05)	5.33 ↓ (5.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlante
58.4%

Draw
24.4%

Atlético Morelia
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

23.1%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

25.7%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlante, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-3%)

Atlante - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Atlético Morelia (4.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Morelia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Beltran R. (G) 22. Calzadilla L. 6. Carrera J. N. 3. Cruz D. 27. Escobar A. 21. Ibarra J. 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. (C) 4. Olivas Salcedo L. A. 24. Pizzuto E. 9. Puente L.	22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 11. Figueroa B. 16. Garcia U. 8. Martinez J. 32. Moreno G. 17. Nambo M. 20. Palma A. 24. Vazquez B. (C) 4. Zamora D.
Substitutes
1. Barragan R. (G) 18. Bermudez C. 15. Charcopa J. 7. Garcia M. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 16. Gonzalez J. 8. Gonzalez R. 19. Gonzalez S. 11. Hernandez I. 20. Tovar J.	7. Aguilera A. D. 153. Alejandre R. G. 6. Botello O. 14. Dominguez M. 34. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 3. Hernandez S. 10. Munoz Z. 29. Ochoa Brandon 30. Sandoval L.
Coaches
Carbajal R.	Ortiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Puente L. (Penalty Awarded),
13', 1 - 1, Nambo M. ⚽,
22', 2 - 1, Puente L. ⚽, Escobar A. (A),
30', Pasquel Colin R. 🟨,
31', del Campo R. 🟨,
45', Palma A. 🟨,
45', Palma A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Moreno G. ↓, Botello O. ↑,
46', Figueroa B. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
60', del Campo R. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
63', Ibarra J. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
64', Puente L. ↓, Hernandez I. ↑,
66', Martinez J. ↓, Aguilera A. D. ↑,
68', Escobar A. 🟨,
73', Zamora D. 🟨,
79', Nambo M. ↓, Alejandre R. G. ↑,
79', Calzadilla L. ↓, Bermudez C. ↑,
85', Escobar A. 🟨,
88', Pizzuto E. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
90+5', Aguilera A. D. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 3.

Recent performances by Atlante have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Morelia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético Morelia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlante is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 0.9:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlante won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.03.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Irapuato - Atlante	0:5 ✺
21.02.26	Atlante - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Correcaminos UAT - Atlante	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Atlante - Tapatío	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWTL
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Venados	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2
26.04.25	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	2:3
23.04.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:0
25.01.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2
11.08.24	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	3:1
24.03.24	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	0:0
15.10.23	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:1

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