Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 4

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	River Plate Montevideo		Atenas de San Carlos

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.05	3
	2.29	3.1	3.14
	2.3	3.17	3.13	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3
	2.23	3.04	3.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.15)	3.05 ↓ (3.17)	3.07 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
40.4%

Draw
29.9%

Atenas de San Carlos
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.6%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

28.1%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Atenas de San Carlos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atenas de San Carlos than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

River Plate Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Borba M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
89', 0 - 2, Cascallares L. ⚽,
90+2', 🟥,

Preview

River Plate is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Atenas has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atenas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atenas has had a series of home games.

River Plate is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:9. (average 2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 2.5:3).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atenas	21	12	4	5	30:18	12	40
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.26%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
23.05.26	Rentistas - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	River Plate Montevideo - Paysandú	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	River Plate Montevideo - Paysandú	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Colón Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWTWL
- Atenas de San Carlos
Uruguayan Segunda Division
23.05.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Paysandú	3:2 ✺
17.05.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Atenas de San Carlos	1:0 ✺
08.05.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
27.04.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:4 ✺
17.04.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Tacuarembó	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
04.08.18	Atenas de San Carlos - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
03.06.18	Atenas de San Carlos - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
18.02.18	River Plate Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	3:1
14.02.15	River Plate Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	2:5
16.08.14	Atenas de San Carlos - River Plate Montevideo	1:3

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