Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Américo Montanini (Bucaramanga)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	ESPN
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ESPN South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Atlético Bucaramanga		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.3	Watch
	2.35	2.95	3.25
	2.55	2.88	3.1	Watch
	2.61	2.92	3.18
	2.57	2.94	3.11	Watch
	2.62	3	2.62	Watch
	2.62	2.95	3.12	Watch
	2.55	2.88	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (3.12)	2.94 ↓ (3.17)	3.1 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Bucaramanga
37.4%

Draw
32.1%

Fortaleza
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

29.9%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

29.4%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Bucaramanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Bucaramanga's performance.

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Bucaramanga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	23.1%	15.4%

Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bucaramanga will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bucaramanga: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bucaramanga (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Bucaramanga (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fortaleza (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bucaramanga (votes: 3 - 75%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quintana A. (G) 19. Gutierrez A. 23. Romana C. 29. Henao C. 8. Hinestroza F. 28. Flores L. 22. Fabry (C) 92. Ibarguen A. 7. Londono K. 70. Castaneda F. 27. Pons L.	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga (C) 23. David Luiz 39. Gustavo Mancha 14. Mancuso E. 17. Ze Welison 5. Fernandez P. 16. Diogo Barbosa 10. Calebe 19. Allanzinho 18. Deyverson
Substitutes
17. Andrade A. 30. Cardenas S. 15. Chavez D. 4. Garcia J. 11. Jhon Vasquez 6. Jimenez M. S. 2. Mena J. 14. Mosquera J. 97. Penaranda A. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G) 25. Zapata C. 20. Zarate A.	77. Andrade K. 32. Avila G. 27. Borrero D. 12. Brenno (G) 26. Breno Lopes 13. Kuscevic B. 88. Lucas Sasha 38. Lucca Prior 9. Lucero J. 20. Matheus Rossetto 4. Titi 22. Yago Pikachu
Coaches
Alvarez L.	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Deyverson (Pen),
19', 0 - 1, Deyverson ⚽,
36', Gustavo Mancha 🟨,
45', Ze Welison 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ibarguen A. ↓, Jhon Vasquez ↑,
46', David Luiz ↓, Kuscevic B. ↑,
51', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
60', Flores L. ↓, Chavez D. ↑,
66', Allanzinho ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
66', Diogo Barbosa ↓, Borrero D. ↑,
67', Calebe ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
68', Castaneda F. ↓, Cardenas S. ↑,
80', Fernandez P. ↓, Lucas Sasha ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Pons L. (Pen),
90+3', Deyverson ↓, Lucero J. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bucaramanga won 2.

Bucaramanga is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fortaleza is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Bucaramanga: Blanco J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Breno Lopes (Forearm injury) Britez E. (Ankle Injury) Moises (Injury) Pochettino T. (Tendon Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Bucaramanga won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:4 (average 1.5:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Bucaramanga won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A
20.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:1 ✺
17.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza CEIF	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	Racing - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.3 TWWWL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fortaleza - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
16.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Fortaleza - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	Colo-Colo - Fortaleza	Abandoned ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Mirassol - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLT?T

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
20.08.16	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2
13.03.16	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	0:0
Colombian Primera B
12.12.15	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	0:0
06.12.15	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:2
10.08.15	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1
16.03.15	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	4:1

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