Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+


	Atlético Morelia		Mineros de Zacatecas

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3.6	3.4
	1.78	3.5	4.15
	1.81	3.75	4.43
	1.78	3.74	4.25	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4
	1.83	3.58	4.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.85)	3.6 ↑ (3.55)	4.05 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
51.5%

Draw
25.7%

Mineros de Zacatecas
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

25.9%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

26.3%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Mineros de Zacatecas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mineros de Zacatecas than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Mineros de Zacatecas will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 28. Flores A. 3. Hernandez S. 8. Martinez J. 26. Martinez J. (C) 17. Nambo M. 20. Palma A. 4. Zamora D.	1. Duran L. (G) 17. De Los Rios S. 23. Garcia A. 12. Hernandez L. 11. Lopez F. 9. Machado J. 19. Magana K. 4. Marmolejo D. 14. Mazatan O. 18. Mendoza A. (C) 24. Padilla P.
Substitutes
7. Aguilera A. D. 6. Botello O. 150. Conejo J. 23. Esqueda D. 11. Figueroa B. 34. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 32. Moreno G. 10. Munoz Z. 29. Ochoa Brandon 31. Vivas J. F.	10. Avila J. 3. Barajas V. 20. Castro Garcia W. D. 2. Cervantes L. 30. Jimenez J. 13. Perez M. 6. Rios P. 8. Trejo E. 22. Valenzuela J. (G)
Coaches
Ortiz M.	Munoz L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Padilla P. ↓, Rios P. ↑,
24', del Campo R. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, del Campo R. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Garcia A. 🟨,
59', Lopez F. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
59', Machado J. ↓, Cervantes L. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Magana K. (Own goal),
76', Rios P. ↓, Avila J. ↑,
78', Flores A. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
78', Marmolejo D. 🟨,
84', Cervantes L. 🟨,
85', Nambo M. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
85', Martinez J. ↓, Figueroa B. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 1.

Atlético Morelia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mineros de Zacatecas is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético Morelia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Morelia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
6	Zacatecas Mineros	11	5	2	4	23:19	4	17

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Morelia - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.73%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Jaiba Brava - Atlético Morelia	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLTLW
- Mineros de Zacatecas
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Irapuato - Mineros de Zacatecas	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Atlante - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:1 ✺
29.03.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	3:0
06.02.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	1:1
30.08.25	Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:0
05.04.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	1:1
17.10.24	Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas	0:0
28.01.24	Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:2
23.07.23	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	4:0

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